Category: Reddit Post

Chris Weston, Pepperstone: The Daily Fix – The calm before the potential US payrolls storm

Authored by Chris Weston The Daily Fix – The calm before the potential US payrolls storm The ECB set the stage for the EU/US trading session and delivered a hawkish cut that really hasn’t surprised anyone – EURUSD popped into 1.0900, but once again traders faded the move above the figure and 1.0900 remains the zone the EUR bulls really want to see give way. As expected, the ECB did tweak its growth forecast for 2024 to 0.9% (from 0.6%) and its core CPI call to 2.8% (2.6%), and we know with some conviction that the collective within the ECBs ranks are non-committal on future cuts and working on a meeting-by-meeting basis. A somewhat content central bank but one not celebrating just yet, and while we won’t see a follow-up cut in July, if the data is there then we could see one in September, especially if the market feels a greater belief the Fed also ease in that month. EU equities found small sellers post ECB, but not enough to push the day’s net change into the red, and the EU Stoxx closed +0.7%. In the US, we’ve seen sellers in Nvidia (-1.2%) and Apple (-0.7%), but with Microsoft holding in and good buyers seen in Amazon and Alphabet, the result was a flat close in both the S&P500 and NAS100. Keith Gill – Manipulator of markets or a genius? GameStop saw 182m shares traded, with shares closing +47%, as Keith Gill takes to YouTube and the debate as to whether he is a genius or a manipulator rolls on – I sit in the camp that Gill has cornered a part of the market that no one else had looked at, and whether he stumbled upon it or it was 100% premeditated, he’s played his hand and the system, and the real consideration now is that once his 120k call options are exercised is how he goes about getting out of a punchy position without causing a collapse in GME ( and other meme’s). This is where his reputation as a saviour of the retail trader will be lost or truly cemented. US Treasury markets have closed unchanged across the various maturities, with US unit labour costs (4% vs 4.9%) and weekly jobless claims (229k vs 220k expected) the main economic data points to navigate, although they failed to really move the dial ahead of US nonfarm payrolls (NFP). I’d argue that the Fed will be fairly pleased by the lower read in unit labour costs, but it is just a small win in the grand scheme of things and won’t truly affect their thinking. The lack of real movement in USTs resulted in limited ranges in G10 FX, with EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY largely unmoved on a net change basis. AUDUSD has seen some buying into 0.6666 and continues to focus on the range highs of 0.6700. We’ve seen some life in the MXN (-1.8%) with headlines that Ignacio Mier – Morena’s leader in Congress – would soon look to pass the structural reforms, although I’m not sure that should surprise anyone too intently. We have some notable moves in commodity markets – Gold has broken above the range highs of $2362, which bodes favourably for those set long, although the upside is hard to chase ahead of NFPs. Gold miners have worked well, with the GDX ETF closing at +3.5%. Silver has really kicked with price pushing +4.3% and at $31.30 looks up at the 29 May highs of $33.30 – big levels for the radar. Copper sits at +1% at $4.671 and really needs a push through $4.696 to get the momentum pumping. Crude has added 2% and pushed into $75.57 as we look to see if it can kick back into the former trading range of $81 to $76 – where the moves in crude have seen US energy names outperform on the day (the S&P500 energy sector closed +0.6%). The wash-up of the leads is we should see Asian equity indices open on a mixed footing, with the ASX200 eyed +0.2% at 7835, the HK50 +0.5% and the NKY225 -0.1%. By way of a guide, BHP’s ADR suggests an open at $44.77 (+1.6%), so we can assume that materials and energy plays will support, and we may see a modestly weaker open for ASX200 banks, which have been on fire of late. US NFP playbook The big factor, of course, not just for equity heads, but on a multi-asset basis, is assessing the risk of holding exposures through US nonfarm payrolls (22:30 AEDT) – the consensus is that we see 180k jobs created, with the unemployment rate (U/E) unchanged at 3.9% and average hourly earnings (AHE) also eyed at 3.9%. The Goldilocks scenario, where risky assets rally, would be an unchanged u/E rate, payrolls coming in between 180k to 200k and a moderation in AHE. The scenario where risk is sold would likely be a strong print that prices out rate cuts this year – that being, a fall in the u/E rate to 3.8% or below, with payrolls coming in above 250k. The alternative scenario that leads to the same outcome of derisking, is where perceived recessionary risk rise modestly, and for that, we would need the u/E rate to rise above 4%, with payrolls below 140k. Given US Treasuries have rallied into NFPs, I’d argue there are greater downside risks for equity and gold (upside for the USD), than a positive scenario where the data on a holistic basis hits the sweet spot – a lot of what-ifs and hope, and as always the market will see what it wants to see – not a great backdrop for traders. Good luck to all. Best UK retail CFD Broker – Pepperstone. Use this link with the built-in REDDIT promo code. Switch to Pepperstone – it may be the best trade you’ll ever make submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

How To Trade GOLD – Risk Management Calculation

Let’s take GOLD (XAUUSD) as the example with 1:30 leverage for retail clients and the price 2360 USD per ounce. 1 lot of Gold (XAUUSD) = 100 ounces 0.01 lot position = 1 ounce 2360 x 1 ounce/ 30 (leverage) = 78.7 usd It means that 79 usd of your balance will be used for the margin requirement. Opening 0.01 lot position means that you buy/sell 1 ounce. Price movement for just 1 USD can potentially bring you 1 USD profit as well as the same drawdown. 0.10 lot position = 10 ounces 2360 x 10 ounces/ 30 (leverage) = 787 usd It means that 787 usd of your balance will be used for the margin requirement. Opening 0.10 lot position means that you buy/sell 10 ounces. Price movement for just 1 USD can potentially bring you 10 USD profit as well as the same drawdown. 1.00 lot position = 100 ounces 2360 x 100 ounces/ 30 (leverage) = 7867 usd It means that 7867 usd of your balance will be used for the margin requirement. Opening 1.00 lot position means that you buy/sell 100 ounces. Price movement for just 1 USD can potentially bring you 100 USD profit as well as the same drawdown. NOTE: Do not forget about the Market 3-day swaps that are taken on Wednesdays. Always check Contract Specification in the Market Watch before the new asset trading. Where to trade? You know 👉 https://track.pepperstonepartners.com/visit/?bta=38408&brand=pepperstone https://preview.redd.it/tlrja6fgwz4d1.png?width=1342&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb3bee4226e8a3b1cb2a6eacbbc790b9fa327013 submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

GME

submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

ECB SEES

ECB SEES 2024 GDP AT 0.9%; PRIOR FORECAST 0.6% ECB SEES 2025 GDP AT 1.4%; PRIOR FORECAST 1.5% ECB SEES 2026 GDP AT 1.6%; PRIOR FORECAST 1.6% submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

Set & Forget?

A few years ago, a dedicated discussion on algorithmic trading took place at the FX Week Europe conference. Participants from Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and other market players emphasized the need for traders to ensure more proper monitoring of their orders when using algorithmic execution. They cannot afford to be passive. “Buy-side traders with a SET & FORGET approach to using algorithms for executing their currency orders may need to rethink this. With the shift of risk to the buy-side, it’s important for traders to be more proactive about how their orders are executed in the market.” What threats could this pose? **Increased Risk**: Due to the rapid nature of transactions executed through automated systems, market shocks can quickly propagate across markets at a much higher speed. **Over-Optimization**: Despite the ability to test the capabilities of algorithmic trading platforms before conducting real trading operations, there remains a risk of overfitting to specific trends. **Maintenance Issues**: An algorithmic trading platform requires operational hardware during trade execution. Dedicated computers, servers, and connections are necessary to ensure the system works correctly. **Monitoring**: Due to the risk of errors, failures, and power loss, automated trading systems require monitoring. Nasdaq recommends that traders create monitoring and observation teams trained to use both visual and audio alerts. The SET & FORGET approach is applicable exclusively to professional algorithmic portfolio management services, with a dedicated team responsible for regular control and checks. This team should include representatives from trading, client services, compliance and documentation, risk assessment, and credit departments. And even there, as we all know, things regularly go wrong https://finance.yahoo.com/video/glitch-occurs-stock-exchange-happens-165850068.html submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

💬 Which cryptocurrency will the next ETF be linked to?

CEO of the investment company Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz told which crypto asset could become a contender for the launch of a new ETF. He believes that over the past year, the Solana cryptocurrency has shown the most impressive results. At the end of 2023, SOL was trading around $21, but by March 2024, the coin exceeded $200, showing an increase of more than 850%. Now SOL closes the top five cryptocurrencies leading by market capitalization. Given Solana’s current position, Novogratz is confident that the altcoin has a good chance of being included in a potential spot ETF. Mike Novogratz isn’t the only one who believes the next cryptocurrency ETF will be tied to Solana. Recently, a similar point of view was expressed by the CEO of the investment company BKCM, Brian Kelly. submitted by /u/Lor1al [link] [comments]

Is the US stock market overvalued?

The US stock market capitalization to GDP ratio is at an impressive 187%. Although it still remains below the record of 199% in 2021, the 40% growth rate in just two years makes us cautious. Nominally, the total capitalization of the US stock market is approaching its all-time high of $53 trillion, which underscores the presence of the US market at the forefront of growth compared to other countries’ markets. For comparison, the ratio of global stock market capitalization to GDP (excluding the US) is only 61%. Another illustrative ratio is the gold price to the S&P 500 index, which currently stands at 0.45. This contrasts sharply with the ratio of 1.69 during the debt ceiling crisis in August 2011 and the staggering ratio of 2.75 in August 1979, when Paul Volcker became Fed chairman during the stagflation crisis. Gold would be worth more than $14,000 an ounce if today’s ratio were the same as in 1979. Do you think we should expect a crisis in the next 5 years? https://preview.redd.it/tk12xbdbal4d1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=e586b2e3bf5f850cb6067213a754e73a90797e32 submitted by /u/dll_crypto [link] [comments]

Chris Weston: 🇯🇵 A solid rally in the JPY across the board – USDJPY now 154.83

BoJ talking about a near-term bond purchase slowdown US data is showing signs of cooling and the exceptionalism story is debated (a USD negative) the market is very short of JPY, notably as its role as the funder for carry positions https://preview.redd.it/1luopv6qgj4d1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=da0cfda70c534ba2f2db61096d277fb338831e91 submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

Globalization: A Force for Evil?

Globalization has its downsides, especially for regions that are already struggling. These places become even more desolate. The easier it is to travel around the world, the more likely people are to flee to where there’s hot (or any) water. Not to mention unemployment benefits, aromatic sausage and a fatty cultural layer on it. People flee even when the economy is growing. It’s not just about future prospects, but the current disparity in living standards. If life in Syria is slowly but surely getting better, you might feel excited that in 30 years your country will catch up to, say, Bulgaria. But why wait? You could move to UK right now, where the locals are more than happy to share their personal income tax. Capitalism chases profitability, and not environmental friendliness or the rights of the working class. Regions are becoming impoverished and desolate. People flee from poverty and a lack of social elevators. And not just from desperate poverty, but from simple unemployment. Traditional agriculture, for example, has become incredibly efficient. Where 100 years ago 500 people with horses and pitchforks were needed, 30 years ago it took just 50 with fertilizers, tractors, and milkmaids. Now, five people with robots, GMOs, and vertical farms are enough. There simply isn’t enough work. More layoffs are coming, and that’s normal. The main thing is for regional authorities to understand that globalization isn’t all good. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

For real

submitted by /u/Lor1al [link] [comments]