Category: Reddit Post

Peppesrtone, Chris Weston:The RBA has an inflation headache – the August RBA meeting is now live

Authored by Chris Weston It’s the big fear for Aussie mortgage holders, but after today’s May CPI data we are now seeing the 24 August RBA meeting as ‘live’. So, while the June employment report (due 18 July) and Q2 CPI report (31 July) will go some way to truly determining a hike – judging by market pricing, a 25bp hike in August is now a real risk and the brave economists out there will be looking at their house call and begrudgingly tweaking it. Plugging the various CPI components into the Q2 CPI model, and estimates suggest we’re shaping up for a trimmed mean Q2 CPI print of 0.9% q/q, which would be a touch above the RBA’s own forecasts of 0.8%. We see estimates of core services +0.4%m/m and again this is just too high. Headline CPI did fall a touch month-on-month, which is the silver lining, but when we annualize this, we see inflation has risen and progress on inflation is glacial. We need to remember that there is a stark difference between a psychological token 25bp hike and that of a new hiking cycle – but in the art of being pro-active, the RBA may want to get the real policy rate a touch higher. We’ll learn more tomorrow when RBA member Hauser speaks (20:00 AEST) and Aussie rates and AUD traders will be glued to every word to see if the pricing in markets is correct. However, the markets have spoken out, and we see the Aus 3yr govt bond +15bp to 4.07% and testing range highs in yield. Aussie swaps price 10bp of hikes (or a 40% implied) for the August RBA meeting, where it holds this pricing through the end of the year, with easing not priced until April 2025. In equity land, the ASX200 fell 47p on the data but has found better buyers into 7750. The AUD has firmed up in line with rates pricing, although we’re seeing better sellers in the mix as we roll into the meat of Asia trade. AUDUSD hits a high of 0.6679, where we see consolidation and wait to see how London/European desks trade this move. AUDNZD the play for divergence central bank paths, with the cross pushing into 1.0914 – rate differentials are supportive, and this has 1.1000 in the crosshairs. EURAUD looks to print a new closing low in this run, where EUR traders remain risk managers of the impending 1st round election vote on Sunday, but this feels like it pushes lower too. However, in a world where G10 central banks are either easing or signaling the start of an easing cycle, the RBA, alongside the Norges Bank, is looking more and more like the outlier and that has real meaning for the AUD – if the Chinese yuan wasnt trending lower, the AUD would ripping higher and would be attracting huge pools of global capital. Where to trade? You know 👉 https://track.pepperstonepartners.com/visit/?bta=38408&brand=pepperstone submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

Investments Are Not All Sunshine and Rainbows_part 1

Once upon a time, there was a startup founder, let’s call him Ben. After seven grueling years of “blood, sweat, and instant noodles” (though that’s often an exaggeration, let’s believe it for the sake of the story), he finally built his “house of friendship.” With a substantial round of funding from a top venture capital firm, things were looking up. By 2011, Ben and his team were on the brink of selling their business for a cool $88 million. The deal was almost sealed, and Ben was on the verge of becoming a wealthy man. The venture capital fund that backed him stood to double its investment. But then, disaster struck. The investor, who had the power to veto such deals, pulled the plug at the last moment. “They told me to wait for a better offer,” Ben wrote in his blog. Of course, they thought billion-dollar deals were just around the corner! The better offer never came. Not after a year, not after two. The company lost its momentum – naturally, it was no longer a startup. The co-founders got burnt out and left. And when Ben finally wanted to cash in his late-night instant noodle sacrifices, he had to settle for an amount that was a mere fraction of that once-promising offer. This story is just one of many we never hear about. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

The European Council has unveiled a 14th package of sanctions, targeting crypto providers established outside of Europe that support Russia’s defence-industrial base.

European leaders have adopted another package of sanctions designed to target “high-value sectors of the Russian economy, like energy, finance and trade, and make it ever more difficult to circumvent EU sanctions.” In a Jun. 24 press release, the European Council revealed that the latest package includes restrictive measures on an “additional 116 individuals” as well as entities “responsible for actions undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.” Reuters notes in a report that following the latest action, the sanctions list now includes more than 2,200 entities. Among multiple restrictive measures developed to “crack down on [sanctions] circumvention,” the European Council also introduced a ban on transactions targeting crypto providers “established outside of the EU, when these entities facilitate transactions that support Russia’s defence-industrial base through the export, supply, sale, transfer or transport towards Russia of dual-use goods and technology, sensitive items, battlefield goods, firearms and ammunition.” The specifics of how European countries plan to monitor the industry for potential sanctions violations remain unclear, with some industry experts suggesting it will require extensive due diligence efforts. This development comes a few months after the European Council and Parliament agreed on stricter regulations for crypto firms to enhance anti-money laundering (AML) measures in the sector. Starting from January, crypto firms must scrutinize their customers more closely, particularly for transactions of €1,000 or more. The aim is to ensure cryptocurrencies aren’t used for illegal activities or for sanctions evasion. submitted by /u/Lor1al [link] [comments]

Launch Of 24-Hour CFD Trading on US Shares – Relief from Risk of Gapping

Stock markets typically operate within set hours each day, leaving significant events such as corporate earnings reports or geopolitical developments to occur outside these trading windows. Pepperstone‘s introduction of 24-hour CFD trading on US shares allows traders to seize these opportunities as they happen, reducing the risk of gapping when markets reopen. “One of the biggest risks equity traders face is gapping risk, when the exchange reopens, and 24-hour CFD trading on US shares helps mitigate that.” – said Tamas Szabo, CEO of Pepperstone. Popular stocks of tech giants such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple are included in the offering. Fees start from $0.02 per share and there is no minimum commission for the new 24-hour CFD trading on US shares. This initiative aligns with the New York Stock Exchange’s consideration of round-the-clock trading, motivated by the cryptocurrency market’s success and the increased accessibility of trading platforms. Although other brokers have introduced the option to trade during extended hours on stock CFDs in the past, Pepperstone claims to be the first to offer this service on both the cTrader and TradingView platforms, with availability also on MT5. I don’t know about you guys, but I have a sleepless week ahead of me. Source: https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/pepperstone-rolls-out-24-hour-us-share-cfds-trading-on-multiple-platforms/ submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

MrMBrown

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Who Are Nvidia’s Next Silent Partners?

“The companies who partner with Nvidia could be the biggest stock market winners in 2024.” – Martin D. Weiss Nvidia is not just a player; it’s the kingpin in the realm of AI chips. It’s the only company that can churn out chips powerful enough for the most advanced AI applications, and in quantities that make a real difference. These AI chips are indispensable for any company delving into AI — from ChatGPT to Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and thousands more. Remember the day Nvidia’s one-day gain outstripped the entire market caps of Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Disney, and Netflix? It’s no surprise it’s been the top stock since 2023. While Nvidia has become the golden goose of AI, there are companies quietly collecting golden eggs, flying under the radar. These are Nvidia’s Silent Partners: ASML, AMAT, SMCI, and TSM. Looking ahead, AI’s potential is limited without one key component: Data, the hell Big Data. Google has completed its fourth data center in Singapore. With this completion, the company has raised its investment in the country’s digital infrastructure to US$5 billion. Meta is investing billions in even larger data centers. This isn’t a secret. Giants like Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft are all in. And Nvidia? It’s already staking its claim. Nvidia has developed specialized servers and tech designed specifically for these AI mega data centers. This is Nvidia’s trillion-dollar pivot — from being a chip manufacturer to a titan of chips AND mega data centers. This pivot is what many are missing. They don’t see the shift happening right under their noses. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

meme

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