Category: Reddit Post

Events that are supposed to happen no more than once every hundred years happen constantly

This is because many independent things can go wrong, break, or not work as intended. If, in any given year, we have a 1% chance of a new terrible pandemic, a 1% chance of a global depression, a 1% chance of a catastrophic flood, a 1% chance of a political collapse in a major country, and so on, the chances of something bad happening are quite high. The interconnectedness of our modern world amplifies these probabilities. For instance, a political collapse in a major country can trigger economic instability globally, while a pandemic can strain healthcare systems and economies worldwide simultaneously. These overlapping crises create a domino effect, where one event can set off a chain reaction, leading to multiple, seemingly rare events occurring in rapid succession. Moreover, the rapid pace of technological advancement and environmental changes introduces new variables that can disrupt the status quo. The rise of cyber threats, climate change, and the increasing complexity of global supply chains are additional layers of risk that can cause unexpected and severe disruptions. As our world becomes more interconnected and interdependent, the likelihood of facing multiple “once-in-a-century” events grows. In early 20th century Britain, there was a well-known historian and intellectual named Arnold Toynbee. He wrote an important book called “A Study of History,” somewhat like a Yuval Harari of a century ago. He very aptly said that history is just one damn thing after another. submitted by /u/azramata [link] [comments]

FinTech is eating

linas Beliunas: The BIG news 🗞️ After a three-year journey, London-based FinTech giant Revolut has finally secured a UK banking license from the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA). This milestone marks a significant step in the company’s evolution and its ability to compete with traditional banks in its home market. Let’s take a quick look at this and see why it matters. More on this 👉 We can remember that founded in 2015, Revolut has rapidly grown to serve 45 million customers globally, with 9 million in the UK alone. The company, which started as an e-money institution offering services like checking accounts and foreign currency exchange, can now expand into traditional banking services such as lending and savings products. The license comes with initial restrictions, a common practice for new banks in the UK. Revolut will thus enter a mobilization phase, allowing it to build out its banking infrastructure before fully launching these new services. This process could take up to a year and means the following: Revolut can hold only £50,000 of total customer deposits. Customers will remain with its Financial Conduct Authority-approved e-money entity until a full UK bank launches. But more importantly, this means that the neobank last valued at $33 billion can now offer overdrafts, loans, and savings products to more than 9 million of their consumers in the United Kingdom. submitted by /u/Ankle_be [link] [comments]

Why Slumping Tech Stocks Are Good News for Investors.

Money.com: This week, the S&P 500‘s tech sector has fallen by -5.20%, with some of the biggest losers being market darlings Nvidia (-8.18%), Amazon (-5.20%) and Alphabet (-3.03%). But the fact that shareholders are liquidating their positions in Big Tech doesn’t mean the stock market overall is in bad shape. Rather, what we’re seeing is a dramatic shift in sector rotation and the rise of small-cap companies, demonstrating a more broad-based bull market that isn’t solely reliant on optimism around AI. submitted by /u/Ankle_be [link] [comments]

No need to boast about your ability to invest until you have gone through at least one powerful global crisis

Well, I mean, they went through without a crash. By this criterion, by the way, it is worth assessing the abilities of everyone else. A financial guru who suddenly turns up after three years of market growth will usually turn out to be just a lucky blogger. Save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist. By setting aside savings with caution, you’re prepared for life’s uncertainties. But when it comes to investing, embrace the opportunities with a positive outlook. You need to understand that these are different skills that can even interfere with each other. But you need to level BOTH. To grow your capital effectively, you need to both save diligently and take calculated risks. Imagine someone who saves a portion of their income each month but never invests it; their money may lose value over time due to inflation. Conversely, an investor who takes high risks without a safety net of savings might face financial ruin if the market crashes. The key is to survive short-term declines by having enough savings to cover emergencies and living expenses, while also investing wisely to avoid long-term crashes. This balance allows you to harness the magic of compound interest, which can significantly grow your wealth over time. So, save like a pessimist, always prepared for the unexpected, and invest like an optimist, ready to seize the opportunities for growth. This dual approach ensures you’re ready for any financial situation and can steadily build your wealth. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

During the recent conflict in Gaza, Germany authorized approximately €300 million in military aid to Israel.

Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz: Germany will not stop arms exports to Israel. We will continue to provide her with the weapons she needs. The German government opposes calls to boycott Israeli products. I find these demands disgusting. DW: Despite the criticism and legal challenges, such as the case brought before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) by Nicaragua, which accused Germany of breaching its obligations under international law, the ICJ declined to impose preliminary measures to halt German military aid. The court recognized Germany’s efforts to ensure its military exports do not contribute to violations of international humanitarian law​ submitted by /u/Ankle_be [link] [comments]

The Australian arm of international bank HSBC has informed customers it has begun blocking customer payments to cryptocurrency exchanges as of July 24 local time, becoming the latest major bank to shun the industry, citing scams.

“From 24 July 2024, HSBC will block payments from bank accounts and credit cards that we reasonably believe are being made to cryptocurrency exchanges, for your protection,” HSBC Australia said in a July 24 email to customers explaining its “new safety measures.” https://preview.redd.it/wdkntnadtmed1.png?width=570&format=png&auto=webp&s=191371bbecee7ab0b00251958d40b7a6dec1d649 submitted by /u/Lor1al [link] [comments]

Pepperstone, Chris Weston: The Daily Fix – Hello volatility my old friend

Authored by Chris Weston It’s all become quite lively in markets, with portfolio derisking, liquidations and hedging activity resulting in a 3.7 standard deviation sell-off in the S&P500 and NAS100. Volumes have ramped up, with S&P500 cash volumes 14% above the 30-day average, and some 2.05m S&P500 futures contracts traded on the day (vs the 15-day average of 1.6m). Traders have played outright defence, as the saturated and well-owned tech position continues to be unwound, with levels of equity and index volatility rising sharply as funds increase portfolio protection – the lift in implied and realised volatility has compounded the sell-off and the rotation into ultra-defensive areas of the equity market. One could argue that given the moves and flows we saw last week the platform was already set, and investors were already questioning their position in big tech – throw in clear disappointment in Alphabets Q3 CAPEX guidance, and outright poor numbers from Tesla (with no real guidance to inspire), and we can see the effect in MAG7, semis and the AI-related plays. We can also add an ongoing unease around China’s growth trajectory, very poor PMIs in Europe and a bearish opinion piece from ex-NY Fed member Bill Dudley, and investors and traders derisked and de-grossed portfolios – with an outright closing of long position into cash or rotating into the ultra-safe/low volatility beneficiaries – utilities, and healthcare. We also can’t dismiss the technical developments, where we’ve seen the NAS100 futures break the 50-day MA, which many use as a trend filter. While momentum and trend-following systematic funds (‘CTAs’) have seen both the S&P500 and NAS100 futures breach key price trigger levels that dictate that they reduce the length in positioning. Options flow would have also exacerbated the selling in equity, where we’ve seen a sizeable ramp-up in S&P500 1-month put buying, with traders/funds looking to hedge downside risks. The VIX index now trades at 18.04%, which indicates daily moves in the S&P500 of -/+1.1%. The inspiration for the bulls is that IBM sits +4% after hours after reporting upbeat earnings numbers, and with S&P500 futures still holding above the 50-day MA, this level will need to hold, or increasing volatility could beget even higher volatility. In FX markets, carry continues to be unwound with real venom, and the JPY is flying, with JPY shorts once again taken to the woodshed, backed by solid demand for CHF, CNH, and USDs. MXNJPY has fallen a further 2.2%, where the moves here have been brutal, while AUDJPY and NZDJPY is not far off. Like we’ve seen in US tech and the NKY225, the rally in the JPY is positioning 101 – if you want to dance in the disco, you need to be closest to the exit when the fire breaks out. And after the world had racked up a huge JPY short position, that fire is well and truly ablaze, and it sets us up for a very interesting BoJ meeting next week, where some are calling for a 15bp hike. We’ve seen good demand for US 2yr Treasuries, with yields settling at 4.43% -6bp, and with the selling seen in long-dated Treasuries (US 10yr Treasury settled at 4.28% +3bp), the result has been a sizeable bull steeping of the US Treasury curve. Gold initially rallied to $2432 on haven buying, but as the US 2yr Treasury yield fell gold was pulled lower in sympathy and gold now holds below $2400 – Our flows in gold have been above average and I would imagine they will remain so, especially if we see a downside break of $2388 and into the 50-day MA (2360). Given the moves seen on the US equity dancefloor, our calls for the Asia equity open are shaping up for a somewhat dark and sinister feel. Notably, the cash equity open for the NKY225 looks ugly, and as we see on the daily timeframe the index is in freefall – almost optimal conditions for the short sellers, with the buyers standing aside and pulling their bids to lower levels. The ASX200 eyes an unwind 1% lower, and like we saw in the S&P500 sectors, it’s the companies with ultra-predictable and stable cashflows which will find the love today, where utilities and staples should outperform, and materials, banks and tech will find sellers. China is eyed to open lower, but its times like these when the Chinese equity markets will do the opposite of DM markets and find a bid from seemingly nowhere – so while we see modest selling on open, it wouldn’t surprise at all if the tape turns early in the session and the buyer’s step in hard. Good luck to all. Where to trade? 👉 You know submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

Stomatock

submitted by /u/Aftermebuddy [link] [comments]