Author: Gramatik

TKL: This has NEVER happened in recent history – In a sudden collapse, 30-year interest rates are now LOWER in China than Japan. China’s economy is currently being described as a “deflationary spiral” as seen in Japan in the 1990s. What does this mean? Let us explain.

Here’s a chart showing 30-year government bond yields in China vs Japan. As China cuts interest rates, Japan is raising interest rates. Not even the 2008 Financial Crisis saw Japanese yields rise above Chinese yields. China is now facing “Japanification” of its economy. https://preview.redd.it/zvadphbs2sbe1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=fce97f5ce62391c3896926b915d190030a713cb2 Investors in China’s $11 trillion government bond market have never been so pessimistic about the world’s 2nd largest economy. As a result, we are now seeing the largest gap in US/Chinese bond yields in HISTORY. China’s $11 TRILLION bond market is flashing warning signs. https://preview.redd.it/oqhztm1v2sbe1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=a10d80df61ef3aaac7ae05aa5d7f545f86b0a4e1 China has had 6-straight quarters of deflation for the first time since 1999. Population dynamics are shifting and the real estate collapse is worse than 2008. This is similar to what Japan saw in the 1990s. 25+ years later and Japan has still not recovered from this. https://preview.redd.it/ox0g3osx2sbe1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=3279ca68fbc41fcd29297136351a5fce7c8fcfae Population dynamics are one of China’s largest similarities to Japan in the 1990s. In 2050, the proportion of Chinese over retirement age will be 39% of the total population. 45% of people will be aged 65 or older, up from 13% in 2010. This is due to the one-child policy. https://preview.redd.it/cl95qrj13sbe1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=005d548640856d4f53104cfdb1eb4ff34334e02d This has led to a collapse in Chinese real estate. Since 2021, China’s real estate collapse has destroyed $18 TRILLION of Chinese household wealth. If you adjust 2008 losses in the US for inflation, it equals ~$17 trillion today. China’s 2008 is happening as we speak. https://preview.redd.it/d7vh6of43sbe1.png?width=679&format=png&auto=webp&s=638a1c910ea45c78e1c276006dcaf6373d356584 So, why aren’t markets around the world crashing? After all, China is the world’s 2nd largest economy, behind the US. Wouldn’t a 2008-like event in China have ripple effects around the world? For now, China and the US are in polar opposite situations. Deflation vs inflation. https://preview.redd.it/b6yzfhr73sbe1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=37fdac97692382eff77c4e56eb44c0668fc3231d Now, consumer confidence has COLLAPSED in China and not even stimulus is helping. Over the last 3 years, consumer confidence in China is down ~ 50 points, to a near 30-year low. Such a drop in consumer assessment of the Chinese economy has almost never been seen before. https://preview.redd.it/xfaix5se3sbe1.png?width=654&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b00e5937e1d3eddeff69f7d36f2e58adb756ec1 This has led to the RAPID weakening of the Chinese Yuan, another crisis within a crisis. The Chinese Yuan is nearing its weakest level against the US Dollar since 2007! Currency markets are, in fact, trading like China is in their own modern-day 2008 real estate collapse. https://preview.redd.it/n9ujc3ph3sbe1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=24bef7c71da26e1a11c5fe8c85fc7f57dca45cb0 Suddenly, it all makes sense why China is stocking up on gold reserves. China’s central bank resumed gold purchases in November. They now hold a record ~73 million fine troy ounces of gold. China’s central bank knows exactly what is happening; it’s a crisis. https://preview.redd.it/y0ro884l3sbe1.png?width=863&format=png&auto=webp&s=96d653b13192dc20c1d788f047a2fa718f3428be submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

📊🤓⚡️🇨🇭 USD/CHF Continuation of growth!?🤔

🇨🇭Continuation of growth!? The asset has been moving upward for a long time. The price is in the resistance area of 0.9122, if this level is broken, the growth will continue. 💬 Do you think USDCHF can break 0.9122 resistance and continue to grow? Share your opinion in the comments. submitted by /u/Yuriy_UK [link] [comments]

Gold price breaks resistance with Trump mulling imposing economic state of emergency

Gold price edges higher for the second day in a row on Wednesday around the technical level of $2,655. President-elect Donald Trump is considering imposing an economic state of emergency which would allow to impose global tariffs quite quickly. Gold price remains stuck in a broad pennant technical formation, though starting to test upside levels. submitted by /u/Demblin [link] [comments]

Did you know poverty doesn’t just shape what we eat? The Living Standards Outlook 2024 [UK]: The number of children living in relative poverty is projected to reach 4.6 million by the end of the decade. Absolute poverty is set to stagnate at 18 per cent of the total population.

1️⃣ 💸 No Income ➡️ 🍔 No Healthy Food Low income limits access to nutritious foods like fish, fruits, and vegetables, forcing reliance on cheap, unhealthy options. 2️⃣ 🍔 Poor Diet ➡️ 🤒 Poor Health Lack of nutrition leads to malnutrition, chronic illnesses, and weakened mental and physical well-being. 3️⃣ 🤒 Poor Health ➡️ 📉 Poor Performance Health struggles reduce energy, focus, and productivity – harming education and job performance. 4️⃣ 📉 Poor Performance ➡️ 💸 No Income Reduced productivity limits earning potential, trapping individuals in poverty. 5️⃣ 💸 No Income ➡️ Slower GDP Growth This cycle hits the entire economy – driving up healthcare costs, shrinking the labor force, and stalling GDP growth. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

Facebook Exec Stuns World Live on Fox News: Joel Kaplan, Chief Global Affairs Officer at Meta, tells Fox News that the platforms will end Biden-era censorship, fight with Trump for Free Speech

Bias in Fact Checking: Kaplan admitted fact-checkers were politically slanted, leading to uneven enforcement. Overreach on Hot Topics: Restrictions went too far on issues like gender, trans debates, and immigration. Free Speech Standard: “If you can say it on TV or in Congress, you should be able to say it on Facebook and Instagram.” Fixing Over-Enforcement: Meta is reworking rules to avoid stifling debate. Core Values: Kaplan says the shift restores Zuckerberg’s original vision of open debate and free expression. Dana White joins the Meta Board: Kaplan called White a “legend” for his bold leadership. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

Stock trades for both Democrat and Republican politicians outperformed the S&P 500 in 2024, gaining 31% and 26%, respectively. FIVE politicians actively traded an annual gain of 100% or MORE in 2024, per Unusual Whales. Here’s the full breakdown.

As shown here, on a weighted average basis, both parties outperformed the S&P 500. While the S&P 500 gained ~24%, Democrats ended the year 31% higher. Republicans also ended the year 26% higher. So how does this compare to Wall Street’s returns in 2024? https://preview.redd.it/p7r9e2cb8mbe1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=7687265a20465e08be2fbd5533065af3c4c66b68 Here are the top 5 hedge fund returns in 2024, per Bloomberg: DE Shaw: +36.1% Bridgewater China: +35.0% Statar: +25.3% Broad Reach: +24.3% Marshall Wace: +22.6% In other words, both political parties outperformed ALL but 2 large hedge funds in the US. Here are best returns posted by US Congress members. As seen below, FIVE politicians posted an annual gain of 100% or more. Nancy Pelosi posted an annual gain of 71%, nearly TRIPLING the S&P 500’s return. Much of these gains were fueled by technology stocks. https://preview.redd.it/admgxtlh8mbe1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=89729d8b85ff17e57f881ff53ff4b6d2f562ed26 Furthermore, only 8 members of Congress who were actively trading posted a negative annual return. Meanwhile, the average retail investor was up just 3.7% through November 2024, according to JPMorgan data. A large percentage of retail traders ended the year in the red. https://preview.redd.it/8j5zcu9l8mbe1.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c56bcee2b3caab0231248338a0978e63e112bca Here’s a chart comparing time in Congress versus performance in the market. There seems to be a slight positive correlation between more time in Congress and better returns. This regression shows an R Squared value of 0.017, so not necessarily a huge correlation. https://preview.redd.it/apeqwz8o8mbe1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b2c31b4ac350dd52c04ca223b33fe0c17d91b39 As seen below, Democrats hold nearly 50% of their portfolio in technology stocks. Financial services are the second most popular sector, at 13.4%, but nothing comes close to tech. Democrats are HIGHLY concentrated in technology investments. https://preview.redd.it/c4lk7g7s8mbe1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8ed0087facca697ed4d6e5ea2e46cbd736a999e In 2025, we will be following the trades of active members in Congress, thanks to Unusual Whales for this data. Often, these trades have come before major fiscal policy announcements or legislation. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]