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Here’s a chart showing the ratio of insider sellers to buyers over time. Not even the onset to the 2008 Financial Crisis saw insider stock sales as high as they are right now. For every insider buyer, there are now ~6 insider sellers. Are corporate executives calling a top? Take a look at Jeff Bezos’ stock sales of Amazon, (AMZN) this year. Jeff Bezos ALONE sold another $1.25 billion worth of (AMZN) in November. This brings his total insider sales in 2024 up to a whopping $12.5 BILLION. Never has he cashed out so much stock in a single year. Last week, Mark Zuckerberg cashed out another $153 million worth of Meta stock, META. This brings his total sales over the last 12 months to ~$2.4 billion. META has hit multiple all time highs this year and is now worth over $1.5 trillion for the first time in history. This comes at a time when the S&P 500 is now on track for its 2nd straight annual gain of 24% or more. The last time this happened was in 1998 before the Dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Again, despite a historically strong market, insiders are cashing out as we head into 2025. Nvidia, (NVDA), insiders have also been selling with ~$1.85 BILLION of YTD sales. Total sales have been ~11 million shares year-to-date, the most since at least 2020. This comes after CEO Jensen Huang completed the sale of 6 million shares under a pre-determined sales plan. Meanwhile, the cost of puts on the S&P 500 has become incredibly cheap. In other words, purchasing downside protection in current market conditions is near record lows. As the majority of market participants expect higher prices, insurance becomes concerningly cheaper. Lastly, as corporate executives cash out, individual investors are more bullish than ever. 46% of US individual investors see a 10% or less chance of a market crash. This is the highest percentage since 2006. submitted by /u/XGramatik |
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