In this cycle, the unemployment rate has risen by 0.5 percentage points over the past 4 months, reaching 4.3% in July, the highest level since October 2021.
History shows that if a moderate recession occurs, the unemployment rate could exceed 6% by the end of 2025.
The unemployment rate has already surpassed the 36-month moving average for the first time in 4 years.
Every time this has happened in the past, a spike in unemployment followed.
submitted by /u/FXgram_
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