Trump’s team is considering two main approaches.
One set of policy recommendations — if the new administration believes that resolving the conflict in Ukraine is close — includes some gestures of goodwill towards sanctioned Russian oil producers that could help broker a peace deal, according to sources speaking anonymously.
The second option involves expanding sanctions and further intensifying pressure.
The approach that Trump ultimately chooses will be crucial for the global oil market. Brent crude oil futures have risen nearly $5 per barrel since the announcement of Biden’s measures. Some analysts expect further increases, which would lead to higher fuel costs worldwide.
According to Trump’s team representatives, a more aggressive Russian policy could lead to more active enforcement of secondary sanctions on oil trade. This involves punishing European shippers as well as Asian buyers, including major companies in China and India.
Another possible approach is to take more decisive action against tankers carrying Russian oil through vital Danish and Turkish straits. A softer scenario might mean issuing general licenses and lifting the price cap above $60 per barrel — steps that would ensure Russian oil continues to enter the market.
Trump’s team is also evaluating policy options regarding Iran and Venezuela.
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