Month: January 2025

TKL: US housing affordability is a crisis – The median annual house payment as % of median income has hit 39.4%, the most since the 1980s.

The rate has skyrocketed by 14 percentage points since 2020 and has surpassed the 2006 Housing Bubble peak of 38.1%. It is now only below the 47.5% record set in 1981 when mortgage rates were as high as 18%. Meanwhile, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage has risen by 100 basis points since September, to 7.1%, near the highest since July. Buying a house has rarely ever been so expensive. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

What do you produce? – NOTHING. You lend us money, we buy Bitcoin, ask for more loans. Repeat. We’re in the S&P – “MicroStrategy Targets $2 Billion Capital Raise. It’s All to Buy More Bitcoin.” DJ

“MicroStrategy’s plan aims to raise $21 billion of equity and $21 billion of fixed-income instruments, including debt, convertible notes, and preferred stock, over the next three years.” MSTR submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

Van Gogh at home: virtual museums to visit during the weekend. Remember the concept of cheap vs. expensive dopamine? Cheap dopamine is endless social media scrolling – fast food for the brain. Expensive dopamine? Sports, great books, and immersing yourself in art.

Here’s your dose of luxury dopamine that won’t break the bank – virtual tours of the world’s top museums, all from the cozy comfort of your blanket and a cup of tea (or something stronger): 1. The Louvre (Paris) – Explore legendary works like the Mona Lisa, Venus de Milo, and ancient sculptures. This virtual tour gives access to rooms rarely visited by the public. 2. Van Gogh Museum (Amsterdam) – Dive into the largest collection of Van Gogh’s originals. Paintings, stories from his life, and works by his contemporaries come to life in this interactive experience. 3. Salvador Dalí Theatre-Museum (Figueres) – Step into Dalí’s surreal world. Virtual tours guide you through halls filled with paintings, sculptures, and collages – a museum where every detail is part of Dalí’s magical reality. 4. The Hermitage (St. Petersburg) – Visit 300 halls showcasing world masterpieces, including Leonardo da Vinci’s Benois Madonna and Rembrandt’s The Return of the Prodigal Son. Experience St. Petersburg’s creative spirit from anywhere. 5. Museum of Cosmonautics (Moscow) – Relive space history. See satellite models, rockets, and the taxidermy of Belka and Strelka – iconic symbols of space exploration. 6. Museum of Art (São Paulo) – Marvel at masterpieces by Van Gogh, Titian, Picasso, and Rembrandt, all displayed in MASP’s iconic floating frames. A Saturday evening is the perfect time to step away from investment planning and re-charge yourself. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

Deedy: The dark side of India’s economic growth is inequality:

Top 1% income earners account for 23% of total, higher than South Africa. — Top 1% of wealth is 40.1%, higher than US and China. — If you’re born in the lowest 40% income in India, your odds of getting to top 20% is 3-4%. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

Goldman Sachs just released their most shocking prediction yet: “Trump 2.0” is set to trigger a market event 3x bigger than 2018’s tariff wars. And the warning signs are already showing. Here’s what the post-election surge is telling us about 2025

https://preview.redd.it/ur8wq9pb8zae1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb6cf79773399e42e9b07a9ea4069dd70ce09167 Real quick: Let’s rewind to 2018. The Fed implemented a 75 basis point “insurance rate cut” after tariffs triggered financial conditions tightening. Markets experienced significant volatility. But that might look like a minor tremor compared to what’s coming… The signs are already here: U.S. markets have seen a 40% surge in trading volume since the election. 15.4 billion shares traded daily – the highest in years. Wall Street is betting big on Trump’s return. But here’s what they’re missing: https://preview.redd.it/l6coi8yh8zae1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=50d2bf0e7ca23d8a34fec055c3ad3ed72f8a3b5c Goldman’s analysis reveals multiple concerns: • Potential universal tariffs • Extension of 2017 tax cuts • Additional personal tax cuts worth 0.2% of GDP • Regulatory changes ahead But there’s more to this story: https://reddit.com/link/1htebyz/video/ibu76ido8zae1/player The first major risk? Tariffs. Goldman estimates a 10% universal tariff could: • Push inflation above 3% at peak • Impact GDP growth by 0.75-1.25 percentage points But that’s just the beginning… https://reddit.com/link/1htebyz/video/7698tokt8zae1/player These policy changes would trigger a chain reaction: The Fed expects core PCE deflator to end 2025 at 2.5%, higher than previously projected. They’re now indicating a slower, more gradual series of rate cuts. The fiscal implications are significant: https://preview.redd.it/l5vqovhw8zae1.png?width=458&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa6c1dd1f29fa44bd5839f82e72fc45c70569020 The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecasts: Trump’s proposals could add $7.75 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. This creates a challenging dynamic: https://reddit.com/link/1htebyz/video/vmbcwk319zae1/player Goldman expects three key changes in 2025: • Rate cuts in March, June, and September • GDP growth at 2.4% • Core PCE dropping 0.3% by March But there’s another ahead… The House Republican leadership aims to cut $2.5 trillion in mandatory spending. The Trump team suggests the Department of Government Efficiency could cut $2 trillion from the federal budget. But Goldman warns these proposals may not materialize: https://preview.redd.it/ho4h7kb69zae1.png?width=225&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae00a9d5f3b4fe8666e21324faa09f76559047df Goldman’s projections assume current conditions. But their analysis suggests implementation of full policies could create unprecedented market conditions. The key sectors facing changes: https://preview.redd.it/mswlor889zae1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb0508f094231609963b06f7de8e1307024a7b55 Most vulnerable industries: • Import-dependent consumer goods • Renewable energy • Tech companies Potential winners: • Banks • Energy • Industrial manufacturers submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

In the end of the year everyone talked about Tesla stock soared, adding $30 billion to Musk’s net worth. But the real story isn’t about Tesla… it’s about Musk’s AI startup, xAI.

Until now, xAI has been playing catch-up to AI giants like OpenAI. But Trump’s return to the White House changes everything. With Musk’s deep ties to the new administration, xAI could soon leapfrog its rivals to become the dominant player in the AI space. xAI, Elon Musk’s AI company, has raised $6 billion in a Series C financing round in December. The company announced that Andreessen Horowitz , Blackrock, Fidelity, Lightspeed, MGX, Morgan Stanley, OIA, QIA, Sequoia Capital, Valor Equity Partners, Vy Capital, Nvidia, AMD, and others participated. The new cash brings xAI’s total raised to $12 billion, adding to the $6 billion tranche xAI raised in May. Elon Musk spent the past year building his artificial intelligence startup xAI at breakneck speed. Soon after, the company released Grok, a flagship generative AI model that now powers a number of features on X, including a chatbot accessible to X Premium subscribers and free users in some regions. Grok has what Musk has described as “a rebellious streak” — a willingness to answer “spicy questions that are rejected by most other AI systems.” Told to be vulgar, for example, Grok will happily oblige, spewing profanities and colorful language you won’t hear from ChatGPT. Over the past year, Grok has become increasingly ingrained in X, the social network formerly known as Twitter. At launch, Grok was only available to X users — and developers skilled enough to get the “open source” edition up and running. xAI is sprinting to catch up to formidable competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic in the generative AI race. The company launched an API in October, allowing customers to build Grok into third-party apps, platforms, and services. And it just rolled out a standalone Grok iOS app to a test audience. https://preview.redd.it/h0ftqw372zae1.png?width=796&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ca20c25450dea7bb0577332bf55b3b014da424e Musk said this summer that xAI is training the next generation of Grok models at its Memphis data center, which was apparently built in just 122 days and is currently powered partly by portable diesel generators. The company hopes to upgrade the server farm, which contains 100,000 Nvidia GPUs, next year; in a press release, xAI said it plans to fully double that number. (Because of their ability to perform many calculations in parallel, GPUs are the favored chips for training and running models.) Tesla is also expected to use the upgraded data center to improve its autonomous driving technologies. So the main question here is how to find a backdoor investment opportunity to ride this wave of innovation. Nvidia, X, Tesla are already on the pick up list. Who are xAI’s and/or Memphis data center’s next silent partners? Ideas? submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

In Germany where the country’s largest companies have surpassed 25% female leadership for 1st time.

The share of women in top executive roles has risen from 13.3% in 2020 to a record 25.4% today. Germany also now boasts 4 female CEOs among DAX-listed comps: Bettina Orlopp at Commerzbank, Karin Rådström at Daimler Truck, Belén Garijo at Merck, and Helen Giza at Fresenius Medical Care. https://preview.redd.it/ph0dignszxae1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=c10fac31a2b83c76731dc3d416391103b73e7d6d submitted by /u/Pllover12 [link] [comments]

TKL: Shocking stat of the day – The US dollar is trading ~23% above its fair value, marking the largest divergence on record, according to BofA.

Over this time, the US dollar index, DXY, has soared 21% to its highest level since November 2022. The broader Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, BBDXY, has increased 17% to its highest since November 2022. In 2024 alone, these indices jumped 7% and 8%, respectively, as markets are priced-in higher for longer Fed policy. The US Dollar is stronger than ever. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Gains ground near 0.5600

NZD/USD holds key support of 0.5600 as the NZD rebounds after PBoC’s dovish guidance on interest rates. The US Dollar declines as the Fed is expected to follow a more gradual policy-easing approach this year. Investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for December. submitted by /u/Demblin [link] [comments]

📊💡🤓 🪙 Top traders: what’s so special about them?👇1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9

🪙 Top traders: what’s so special about them? 1️⃣They think for themselves. Successful traders don’t rely solely on others’ opinions or news headlines. They analyze market data and make their own informed decisions. 2️⃣ They don’t care when others disagree. Top traders are confident in their own strategies and don’t let the opinions of others sway them. They know that trading is about making decisions based on their own analysis, not following the herd. 3️⃣ They can trade safely through chaos. Markets can be unpredictable, but top traders are able to stay calm and make rational decisions even when things get volatile. 4️⃣ They are always learning. The best traders always continue learning. They stay up-to-date on market trends, research new strategies, and adapt to changes in the market. 5️⃣ They don’t participate in market debate. Successful traders don’t waste time arguing with others about the market’s direction. They focus on making intelligent trades based on their own analysis. 6️⃣ They cut losses quickly. Top traders know that losses are inevitable but also understand the importance of quickly cutting losses. They set stop-loss orders and promptly exit a trade when it’s not in their favor. 7️⃣ They trade small. Top traders know it’s better to trade small and manage risk than to take on too much risk and lose significantly. 8️⃣ They have confidence. Successful traders believe in their abilities and their strategies. They don’t let fear or doubt cloud their judgment. 9️⃣ They never quit. Trading can be challenging and sometimes frustrating, but top traders don’t give up. They learn from their mistakes and keep pushing forward. Education 💼 To become a successful trader, develop independent thinking, stay disciplined with your strategy, manage risk carefully, and commit to ongoing learning. 💡🤓 submitted by /u/Yuriy_UK [link] [comments]