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Real quick: Let’s rewind to 2018. The Fed implemented a 75 basis point “insurance rate cut” after tariffs triggered financial conditions tightening. Markets experienced significant volatility. But that might look like a minor tremor compared to what’s coming… The signs are already here: U.S. markets have seen a 40% surge in trading volume since the election. 15.4 billion shares traded daily – the highest in years. Wall Street is betting big on Trump’s return. But here’s what they’re missing: Goldman’s analysis reveals multiple concerns: • Potential universal tariffs But there’s more to this story: https://reddit.com/link/1htebyz/video/ibu76ido8zae1/player The first major risk? Tariffs. Goldman estimates a 10% universal tariff could: But that’s just the beginning… https://reddit.com/link/1htebyz/video/7698tokt8zae1/player These policy changes would trigger a chain reaction: The Fed expects core PCE deflator to end 2025 at 2.5%, higher than previously projected. They’re now indicating a slower, more gradual series of rate cuts. The fiscal implications are significant: The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecasts: Trump’s proposals could add $7.75 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. This creates a challenging dynamic: https://reddit.com/link/1htebyz/video/vmbcwk319zae1/player Goldman expects three key changes in 2025: • Rate cuts in March, June, and September But there’s another ahead… The House Republican leadership aims to cut $2.5 trillion in mandatory spending. The Trump team suggests the Department of Government Efficiency could cut $2 trillion from the federal budget. But Goldman warns these proposals may not materialize: Goldman’s projections assume current conditions. But their analysis suggests implementation of full policies could create unprecedented market conditions. The key sectors facing changes: Most vulnerable industries: • Import-dependent consumer goods Potential winners: • Banks • Energy • Industrial manufacturers submitted by /u/XGramatik |
S&P 500 CLOSES 1.1% LOWER, NASDAQ 100 DOWN 1.8%. Over $625 billion of market cap has been erased today.
submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]