Month: December 2024

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Ascending Triangle breakout keep upside trend afloat

USD/CAD climbs to near 1.4075 ahead of key US data and Fed Powell’s speech. Investors should brace for volatility in the CAD as the employmnet data for November is set to release on Friday. USD/CAD holds the Ascending Trinagle breakout, suggesting more upside ahead. submitted by /u/Denchock [link] [comments]

US shale oil production crossed 1 mil b/d in 2011. Since then, Saudi’s market share has been on slow but steady decline, punctuated only briefly by steep price drops in 2015-6 and 2020.

Saudi can manage either price or market share. Today, it’s losing control of both. Prices are falling and so is their market share. This unstable equilibrium is under appreciated by the market. Saudi has no easy out. Either they maintain a $60+ price and see their market share continue to erode, or they increase production to reclaim market share, and see prices plummet. Either way, it’s lower revenue in the short term. Long-term revenue maximization is more important. Saudi can keep propping up the market for the benefit of US (and other non-OPEC) producers, but they shouldn’t. Making the competition stronger at their expense is a terrible long-term strategy. That leaves managing for market share, even if that means increasing production at today’s moderate prices. Doing so will crush the market for several years and cause real pain. But Saudi will be better off in the long term with competitors suffering now rather than prospering. A third price collapse in 10 years will send the signal that no investor, sovereign or private, should ever invest in long-lived production again. Capital providers will completely lose faith in this industry. Saudi needs that. Another price collapse would convince investors that the upstream market is uninvestable for all but the very best assets. There would be less capital for new drilling in the next cyclical rally, fearful of what will seem like an inevitable future price plunge. The market will learn the lesson and severely discount the forward curve, making it hard for producers to hedge and lock in their economics. Only then will the strongest producer, Saudi, benefit from both rising production and prices. Taking the market to <$40 again will be painful for them in the near-term, but they have the financial wherewithal to survive. Taking the near term hit to revenues will be painful, but I don’t think they have any choice. https://preview.redd.it/i721cldszs4e1.png?width=752&format=png&auto=webp&s=f14feab0812b99a6d93a03491150395af8d9a29d submitted by /u/Pllover12 [link] [comments]

Pepperstone, Chris Weston: The Daily Fix – Getting set before the major event risk ramps up

We turn the page on what has been a low energy session, with very calm conditions seen across markets, with only crude, Nat gas and copper showing any kind of real pulse. A reflection of the lack of any tangible news to inspire fresh positioning, with a hotter US JOLTS report or the confirmation on the timing of the French no-confidence vote failing to set off any real gyrations. As we opined on in Monday’s ‘Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook’, the event risk kicks into gear later this week and into mid-December, with US NFP (Friday), US CPI (11 Dec), China’s Central Work Economic Conference (11-12 Dec), before we hear from the 8 or so G10 central banks who meet between 11-19 Dec. Subsequently, these current sleepy conditions may not last for long, and this may well be the calm before we see a happier hunting ground for those that conduct their best work in higher volatility (vol)/higher daily ranging markets presents itself. We’ll see, but that regime certainly feels possible. On the day, we see a limited net change in any of the US equity bourses, with the S&P500 cash index tracking an 18-handle high-low trading range. Cash equity volumes have been fine, and in line with the 30-day average, while S&P500 futures have traded 904k contracts vs the 15-day average of 1.4m. In the options space, 2.52m S&P500 options have traded vs the 20-day average of 3.08m, while looking at participation 31% of S&P500 companies have closed higher on the day, led by Comm Services, and Tech. Participation and volume aside, the set-up in the S&P500 and NAS100 suggests both equity indices look exhausted, with a clear case of buyer’s fatigue. The market is heavily long of US equity in both cash equity and futures, and while we must be open-minded that a goldilocks (i.e. improved but not too hot) US services ISM (in the session ahead), and NFP report could reinvigorate the bulls for one last push higher into year-end, there is also the risk of a low vol grind, with traders taking whatever scraps they can get from selling S&P500 (and single stock) calls to enhance the returns in equity. In the Treasury market, we’ve seen long-end Treasury yields moving 4bp higher, with the 2yr unchanged, resulting in a 4bp steep curve. US interest rate swaps imply a 72% chance of a 25bp cut from the Fed on 18 Dec, and that may evolve with the US ISM services print in the session ahead, and Fed Chair Powell speaking in late US trade – one suspects, in a similar vein to what we heard from Christopher Waller, Powell will express a willingness to ease by 25bp at the December meeting, but any call remains driven by the incoming data. Still, it remains very orderly in rates and bonds and perhaps the lack of vol here is spilling over into more chilled conditions in other asset classes. The lack of any real trend in US rates/Treasuries sees the USD index (DXY) little changed, with EURUSD (+0.1%) the core contributor to that lack of move in the DXY. EUR traders will have an eye on the French no-confidence vote (the debate starts at 4 pm local time), and the extent of any move in the EUR will likely come from the French 10yr – German 10yr bond yield spread. Macron is certainly publicly confident that the government can survive the vote, believing Marine Le Pen will reject it. One suspects this outcome could see relief manifest in EURUSD and we see a move towards 1.0600. There is of course risk that the vote passes, the 2025 budget will be rejected, and PM Barnier will be on his way. The uncertainty that could be injected could take EURUSD towards 1.0470/50, with further falls conditional on the US economic flow. AUDUSD also gets some attention today, with Aussie Q3 GDP on the docket, although I’m personally hesitant to think the GDP print causes any real life in the AUD, as GDP is as backwards as it gets and traders are trying to model growth in Q4, if not Q12025. The market looks for Q3 GDP of 0.5% q/q / 1.1% y/y, and it would likely need to be a sustainable miss/beat to get AUDUSD moving, as we see in the daily set-up, the exchange rate looks very comfortable in a 0.6550 to 0.6450 range. In commodity markets, we’ve seen life in crude, copper, and Nat Gas. Brent futures have seen a solid low-high trend day and sit +2.5% higher. OPEC+ may be holding off from any changes to output for a few months but talk of US-imposed sanctions on Iranian output has been a trigger for the buyers to take price into $73.93. One swallow does not make a Summer, and we’ll need new news to get crude into any kind of trending conditions and a quick look at the higher timeframes shows that Brent crude is still very comfortable in its $75.00 to $70.70 and these levels define the risk. With the leads or the lack of them, our calls for the Asia cash equity open suggest a largely unchanged unwind – the economic data due out through Asia shouldn’t trouble equity to any great extent, so making a call on the ongoing direction of travel is tough, and we’re fully at the mercy of portfolio flows. The obvious target for the ASX200 bulls is to push for a daily close above 8500, but that may take a solid effort from both the banks and materials plays. Good luck to all Chris Weston Head of Research Pepperstone submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

📊 The Triple Top pattern is a technical chart pattern that signals a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. It occurs when an asset’s price reaches a resistance level three times, forming three consecutive peaks at nearly the same level.

🔥 The Triple Top pattern 🔥 📊 The Triple Top pattern is a technical chart pattern that signals a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. It occurs when an asset’s price reaches a resistance level three times, forming three consecutive peaks at nearly the same level. 📈 Fibonacci retracement is a powerful tool that helps identify potential support and resistance levels based on the Fibonacci sequence, a mathematical pattern in nature and financial markets. Education 📝Here’s how you can use this powerful combination: 1️⃣ Identify an uptrend on the chart and notice a Triple Top pattern’s formation; 2️⃣ Use Fibonacci retracement to draw retracement levels from the highest point; 3️⃣ Wait for the third peak to be confirmed after the price crosses 0.78 Fibo level; 4️⃣ Enter the market when the price breaks below the neckline of the Triple Top pattern and retests it; 5️⃣ Close your position when the price reaches the 1.61 Fibo level. submitted by /u/Yuriy_UK [link] [comments]

🤔 Is BTC Losing Its Dominance? The chart points to the potential end of BTC’s dominance in this cycle, with altcoins gaining momentum!

🚨 Is BTC Losing Its Dominance? 🚨 The chart points to the potential end of BTC’s dominance in this cycle, with altcoins gaining momentum! 🔽 BTC’s dominance in trading volume relative to the top 50 altcoins is rapidly declining. 🔼 Altcoins’ dominance, on the other hand, is quickly rising (according to Kaiko data). 💡 Bitwise reports record inflows into ETH-ETFs, ETPs, and altcoin ETPs, surpassing BTC-ETF inflows for the first time! 📉 Despite bitcoin’s falling dominance, it still has the potential to grow, which will allow altcoins to grow even stronger! submitted by /u/Yuriy_UK [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC trades around $95,900 as US government funds weigh in

Bitcoin price hovers around $95,900 on Tuesday after a mild correction the previous day. Traders should be cautious as the US government moved 10,000 BTC from the Silk Road seized address to Coinbase Prime on Monday. Gemini’s Head of US OTC Trading, Olivier Mammet, highlights factors that might affect BTC price in the short to medium term. submitted by /u/Denchock [link] [comments]

Mexican Peso rallies against US Dollar amid upbeat jobs data

Mexican Peso gains 0.25%, buoyed by strong employment figures and general USD weakness. Despite positive US JOLTs data, Banxico’s willingness for bigger rate cuts supports MXN’s strength. Mixed Fed signals on rate cuts; upcoming US labor data could impact Fed’s December policy decision. submitted by /u/Denchock [link] [comments]

📊🤓MICROSOFT could fetch more than 2200 pips after breaking the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle. Lips crossed the jaw of the alligator, making the subsequent rise in December possible.

MICROSOFT could fetch more than 2200 pips after breaking the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle. Lips crossed the jaw of the alligator, making the subsequent rise in December possible. Microsoft, generating $211 billion in revenue last year and leading in AI and cloud with a market cap exceeding $2.5 trillion, is a “cash machine,” according to Aswath Damodaran, and its consistent growth makes it a strategic buy. submitted by /u/Yuriy_UK [link] [comments]

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Stalls below 1.2700 amid dismal UK retail sales

GBP/USD ticks up 0.15%, yet fails to decisively breach the 1.2700 resistance. UK retail sales hit their lowest since April, dropping -3.4% against expectations of a 0.7% rise. Downward pressure persists; support levels at 1.2600 and 1.2486 remain critical for near-term direction. submitted by /u/Denchock [link] [comments]