Month: December 2024

AUD/USD gains as US jobs data points to Fed easing

AUD/USD rises to 0.6392, buoyed by weak US labor market reports US Initial Jobless Claims hit a two-month high, fueling speculation of continued Fed policy easing. Australian employment exceeds expectations with 35.6K jobs added in November, unemployment dips to 3.9%. submitted by /u/Denchock [link] [comments]

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Gold price tumbles as traders book profits after US PPI data

Gold declines over 1% as US PPI rises unexpectedly, countering a weak jobs report and complicating disinflation narrative. Investors anticipate a potential Fed rate cut with high expectations of a 25 bps reduction next week. US Treasury yields see a slight increase, adding pressure to Gold prices as market prepares for upcoming Fed decision. submitted by /u/Denchock [link] [comments]

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📊🤔USD/MXN has broken the trend line and is consolidating at a vital support area, testing MA50. Lips crossed the jaw on the Alligator.

🔥Opportunity for 9000 points🔥 USDMXN has broken the trend line and is consolidating at a vital support area, testing MA50. Lips crossed the jaw on the Alligator. 🇺🇸 If FOMC cuts the rate in December, it may start USD to sell off, which makes this pair extremely attractive. 🔽 If USDMXN consolidates below 20.0800, nearest fractal, and MA50, we can expect the start of a correction! submitted by /u/Yuriy_UK [link] [comments]

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Oil prices are officially back above $70 as inflation worries are mounting.

As we head into 2025, we have ALL THREE major metrics of inflation on the rise; CPI, PPI and PCE inflation. Wage growth has begun to reaccelerate and core inflation is above 3.0%, according to most metrics. Meanwhile, the Fed began rate cuts with a 50 bps cut for the first time since 2008. Next week, the Fed will implement their 100th basis point of interest rate cuts this year. Are we setting up for stagflation in 2025? submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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Donald Trump’s Trolling Masterclass

Trump is back in the spotlight – President-elect Donald Trump has been named Time’s 2024 Person of the Year. Few days earlier… To advertise his new perfume, Fight, Fight, Fight, he used a photo with US First Lady Jill Biden with the caption: “A scent your enemies won’t be able to resist.” https://preview.redd.it/mx5jm9egcf6e1.jpg?width=681&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=caa3e77671c8283da8e0add4c30f504791961b0d The photo was taken at a ceremony in Paris, where Trump is sitting next to Jill. The price of the fragrance is $199, and Trump himself called it the smell of victory. Do you also think that Trump’s team has a neural network that generates this endless stream of news items to stay on the front pages? submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

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TKL: China is panicking. Today, China announced that WIDESPREAD economic stimulus is coming in 2025, including raising their deficit. Currently, parts of China’s real estate sector are down -80% from their high and at 2008 levels. Is China entering a recession?

To put things into perspective, China’s HY real estate sector entered 2024 down -82% in just 2.5 years. Meanwhile, one of China’s largest property developers, Evergrande, filed Chapter 15 bankruptcy. Real estate demand in China collapsed with the onset of deflation. https://preview.redd.it/08yvf7cu1f6e1.png?width=679&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc97148214a39d17f6f697bef4e80a1d9eb48d55 Currently, China is facing its longest period of DEFLATION since 1999. Not even 2008 came with 5 straight quarters of deflation, as we are seeing now. While everyone is fighting inflation, China is dealing with severe deflation. This is arguably even worse than inflation. https://preview.redd.it/yoej41ny1f6e1.png?width=643&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8d5245e0dceb326e646bccab39b238783cd2781 On September 26, China began its largest stimulus since 2020: Cutting reserve requirements by 0.5% Cut 7-day RRP rate by 0.2% Lowering mortgage rates Injecting $142 billion into banks Implement “forceful” rate cuts As we said then, it was “only the beginning.” Immediately after a week of record inflows, Chinese ETFs saw record outflows. The largest China ETF, FXI, saw a record $984 million in withdrawals in 1 week. FXI saw 5 consecutive weekly outflows. https://preview.redd.it/3v6a6b042f6e1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=498f2fb4936f34aa383773f51bd2fc6e9dbfd187 Even as hundreds of billions of Dollars of stimulus have begun, Chinese consumer sentiment is terrible. Over the last 3 years, consumer confidence in China is down ~ 50 points. Such a drop in consumer assessment of the Chinese economy has almost never been seen before. https://preview.redd.it/608ele8q2f6e1.png?width=654&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e98a9cb06bfc411a079753f6bbdd45939e8f148 As a result, China announced the below stimulus for 2025: Raising its budget deficit ratio Deliver rate cuts Lower reserve requirement for banks Increase issuance of ultra-long treasury bonds Increase issuance of local government special notes Will this help? https://preview.redd.it/fb1b5hfx2f6e1.png?width=643&format=png&auto=webp&s=7916c6e99e8197ef0a67a2e688e0e8478b1d26f1 One of China’s biggest issues is the rapid decline in consumer sentiment. China home sales fell -6.9% in November, now down in 17 of the last 18 months. Prior to the last 18 months, home sales fell in EVERY month during the 2022 bear market. This is 2008-like behavior. Lastly, foreign firms are also concerned about China, pulling money out of China for the first time in 30+ years. Investors have withdrawn$12.8 billion from China this year, the most since at least 1998. https://preview.redd.it/latofrg23f6e1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7eb8ea659bb4002f93b8caf1b89ca2b2a7fa645 submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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