Month: December 2024

MicroStrategy is a lose-lose game. No need to talk about Michael Saylor’s brilliance – talk about his addiction. In the past month, Bitcoin rose 2%, while MSTR has dropped nearly 50%. TKL is trying to figure out why.

Something doesn’t add up here: MicroStrategy, MSTR, has been known as the most popular “levered” Bitcoin play of the year. Meanwhile, over the last month Bitcoin has gained +2% while MSTR is currently down nearly -50%. What is happening? Let us explain. Here’s a comparison of MSTR vs Bitcoin since November 20th. Bitcoin has traded almost completely flat on a net basis, even after rising as much as +16%. Meanwhile, MSTR is down ~36% and continues to widen the gap between the two assets. Why is this happening? https://preview.redd.it/dr1qg9hst1ae1.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=41d8c1aa18bf4d2f6aae7ffb78841a5bc2b3e414 If MSTR is really just a levered #Bitcoin play, why is there such a large divergence. Here’s the S&P 500 ETF, SPY, compared to a triple levered S&P 500 ETF, SPXL. Since November 1st, SPY is up ~3.5% while $PXL is up ~9.8%. This makes sense as it is TRIPLE levered. https://preview.redd.it/peo53zhyt1ae1.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=c88c98145f67795f99f08f3ebe2b1514dff7c293 For most of the year, the correlation between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin was incredibly strong. However, something began to shift over the last month, particularly as the company took on tons of debt. Then, MSTR suggested raising the authorized share count by 10 billion. https://preview.redd.it/9yi7ffe2u1ae1.png?width=665&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e42d6336ce9d9e2b84ebb88b9dad207e54831c3 Through a series of convertible note and debt issuances, MSTR took on TONS of leverage. In fact, they now hold ~$42.3 billion of Bitcoin, or 446,400 coins. Now, to continue buying, the company needs to issue more debt/equity which is where the 10 billion shares come in. https://preview.redd.it/fmz96rl5u1ae1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=b645ec490790354dd89c27ac4212c5edf8b9e9c9 Markets appear to be concerned over the potential approval of raising authorized share count by 10 billion. Total share could would rise from 330 million to 10.33 BILLION if it is approved. The problem is, it has left the company in a “lose-lose” situation for now. https://preview.redd.it/6aon7tg7u1ae1.png?width=836&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b43784513febe5820b65410a12684d84a7d0f4c Why do they need the ability to do this? Because it’s their entire “business model:” Borrow money through 0% convertible notes Buy Bitcoin and drive price higher Sell new shares at premium and buy more bitcoin Repeat Here’s why it puts them in a “lose-lose.” If the plan is approved, bears will say that this is a highly dilutive move for existing shareholders. However, if it is not approved, then MicroStrategy will be unable to continue buying Bitcoin on leverage. Buying Bitcoin is obviously an integral part of $MSTR’s strategy. https://preview.redd.it/urczpkpdu1ae1.png?width=526&format=png&auto=webp&s=a48c92523738883e94808e48b50a4a1e9d40c7a7 So, on one hand, investors will be upset over share count dilution when authorized share count is issued. On the other hand, if the plan is not approved, then MSTR can no longer purchase Bitcoin on debt. This has put both Saylor and shareholders in a difficult situation. In reality, the odds of the share count approval being raised are high. Why so? Because Michael Saylor himself currently holds 46.8% of the voting power. If just ~4% of remaining shareholders approve, then it will pass which is highly likely. Markets are pricing this in. https://preview.redd.it/5i7het3nu1ae1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3e1bf2d16cc0e2ab30204ac04d9603b537fd046 Sum it all up and the double levered MicroStrategy ETF, MSTU, is down ~70% from its high. However, the ETF is up 257% over the last 6 months. Is this the start of a major crash or a buying opportunity? https://preview.redd.it/9y3liakru1ae1.png?width=681&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d5841fdbd7419542553fa47fc5b9812672733c0 submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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TKL: This has never been seen before. The top 10 stocks have accounted for 59% of the S&P 500’s gains since the October 2022 bottom.

By comparison, the next 10 stocks have contributed just 11% while the remaining 480 stocks have contributed 30%. Over this period, the top 10 stocks’ share of the S&P 500’s is up 13 percentage points, now reflecting a record 40% of the index. The top 3 stocks alone reflect a record 21% of the index’s market cap. A few stocks are driving the entire market. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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📊🤓 EUR/USD 📉📈The pair has formed a bearish rising wedge pattern, and the price is currently breaking through the lower border. As soon as this breakout is confirmed, the way to 1.0385 and 1.0350 will be open!

📊🤓 EUR/USD 📉📈The pair has formed a bearish rising wedge pattern, and the price is currently breaking through the lower border. As soon as this breakout is confirmed, the way to 1.0385 and 1.0350 will be open! submitted by /u/Yuriy_UK [link] [comments]

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Wall Street Mav: Another 653,000 fake jobs revised away by govt statisticians. They were faking the data during 2023 and 2024 to try to boost Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

In the revisions, they have also admitted to 818,000 fake jobs being removed from the 2023 data. Now the truth is coming out. Plus as soon as Trump takes office expect the entrenched left wing staff will start portraying the economic data has negative. We won’t find out till much later during the revisions. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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Ton has suffered a major data breach, undermining trust in the ecosystem. Over 2.7 million records leaked online. Ghost’s TG channel investigation revealed the scale (and is still up). Usernames, IDs, and wallets of top managers and 80-90% of the TON blockchain are exposed.

Summary: Full names + username + job titles + Telegram IDs + wallets of Ton’s top management have leaked. The database contains ~2000 entries. username + Telegram ID + full names + wallets of 80-90% of the entire TON blockchain – which also happens to be Telegram users – have leaked. Currently, 2.7 million entries are out there. In reality, the number is higher. There are, of course, many bots. With simple OSINT techniques, all leaked usernames and IDs can be traced to personal data. To summarize: 💢 Linking IDs and Wallets A core principle of cypherpunk ideology is the absence of identity attachment to assets. But here we see a direct connection: usernames (clearly from Telegram), IDs, and wallets. This kills user anonymity, making them potential targets. What prevents someone from linking this data to real identities? Nothing. 💢 Centralized Data Control The cardinal sin of decentralization – storing sensitive data in centralized databases. This is what happens when someone decides it’s “more convenient.” One leak, and the entire “security” crumbles, followed by the reputation. Cypherpunks are shaking their heads. 💢 Unjustified Data Collection Why store such data at all? Especially in a format where usernames are directly linked to IDs and wallets. In decentralized systems, collecting such data contradicts the entire idea. 💢 No Failure Protection Where’s the hashing? Data masking? Even if this database was for internal use, at the very least, the data could have been masked to prevent direct correlation. Consequences: 💢 User De-anonymization If someone links their crypto wallet to an account tied to real data (like a Telegram username), all their financial activity becomes public knowledge. From there, it’s easy to dig deeper – a bit of OSINT, and even personal addresses could be uncovered. 💢 Target for Attacks Users whose data is in this database become potential victims. Phishing, social engineering, account takeovers – the scenarios are endless. 💢 Loss of Trust in the Platform If this involves a service that advertised security or privacy, this leak destroys its entire reputation. The cypherpunk community doesn’t forgive such mistakes. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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> $1 trillion

The amount that investors plowed into U.S.-based exchange-traded funds in 2024, shattering the previous record set three years ago and raising Wall Street hopes for an even bigger year ahead. Total assets in U.S.-based ETFs reached a record $10.6 trillion at the end of November, according to monthly ETFGI data, an increase of more than 30% from the start of 2024. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

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TKL: The US dollar is getting even stronger: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has gained 7.4% in 2024, on track for its best annual gain in 9 years.

The index has risen 6.9% over the last 3 months and hit its highest level since November 2022. It’s clear now more than ever, markets are pricing-in a rebound in inflation next year. All while the Fed has cut rates by 100 basis points since September 18. Markets are pricing-in higher for longer Fed policy. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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Germany: FDP leader Christian Lindner has set his sights on crypto investors in his election campaign. He proposed allocating some of the Bundesbank’s and ECB’s currency reserves to Bitcoin.

Currently, the Bundesbank holds 3,352 tons of Gold in reserve, w/approximately $280bn – making it the 2nd-largest Gold reserve in the world, just behind the US. The Lindner proposal had no impact on the crypto market. Bitcoin has fallen further to currently 93,000 dollars. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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