Currently, total open interest for call (buy) options stands at $12 billion, while put (sell) options trail at $7.8 billion. Deribit dominates the options market with a 72% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 12% and Binance at 9%. However, Bitcoin’s 68% price surge over the past three months has rendered most put options ineffective.
As the expiry date approaches, both bulls and bears are incentivized to influence Bitcoin’s spot price. Yet, while bullish investors are targeting levels above $110,000, their optimism alone does not guarantee that BTC will breach this threshold.
Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin bulls are strategically better positioned for the year-end options expiry. For example, if Bitcoin’s price remains around $100,500 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 27, only $275 million worth of put (sell) options will retain value. This scenario arises because the option to sell at $100,000 becomes worthless if BTC trades above that threshold at expiry.
Below are five probable scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances but exclude complex strategies, such as selling put options to gain upside price exposure.
- Between $90,000 and $95,000: $4.6 billion in calls vs. $1.1 billion in puts. The net result favors the call (buy) instruments by $3.6 billion.
- Between $95,000 and $100,000: $5.6 billion calls vs. $520 million puts, favoring calls by $5.1 billion.
- Between $100,000 and $105,000: $7.12 billion calls vs. $240 million puts. favoring calls by $6.9 billion.
- Between $105,000 and $112,000: $8.13 billion calls vs. $120 million puts, favoring calls by $8 billion.
To avoid significant losses, bears need to drive prices below $95,000 ahead of the Dec. 27 expiry. On the other hand, bulls stand to maximize their gains if they can push BTC above $105,000, marking a new all-time high.
submitted by /u/FXgram_
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