Day: December 24, 2024

Nike is down 28% to under $77/share this year and even after a great earnings report still trades at a depressed multiple.The stock trades for just 21x earnings now while historically trading at around 35x earnings. Be greedy when others are fearful with Nike? 🤔

Nike is down 28% to under $77/share this year and even after a great earnings report still trades at a depressed multiple.The stock trades for just 21x earnings now while historically trading at around 35x earnings. Be greedy when others are fearful with Nike? 🤔 submitted by /u/glira31 [link] [comments]

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Michael Saylor is going all-in – Great breakdown by TKL. Merry Christmas!

Michael Saylor is going all-in: MicroStrategy (MSTR) just said that they want to raise authorized share count by 10 BILLION. They currently have 330 million shares outstanding, meaning this could increase share count by 3,000%. What does this mean? Let us explain. Here’s the filing MicroStrategy just made with the SEC. Total share could would rise from 330 million to 10.33 BILLION if it is approved. Many are calling this dilutive while others are saying this is the start of a major run for MSTR. https://preview.redd.it/l1m6zmaast8e1.png?width=836&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f83ab200705b20691a1cf0a6da2df4fbe2f72de First, MicroStrategy’s 21/21 plan that was announced in October 2024 is a crucial part of why they are doing this. The plan was to raise $42 billion by 2027 to finance more Bitcoin purchases. It has since achieved that goal, now holding 444,262 BTC worth ~$41.8 billion. https://preview.redd.it/26bhzvsest8e1.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=a73f9cc9fe759abef409e048f0802c3d257c978c he bullish argument is that this proposal allows MicroStrategy the ability to issue more shares in the future. This proposal will allow 10 billion shares to be issued, but this does NOT mean 10 billion shares are coming at once. They can uses these issuances to buy Bitcoin. Currently, MicroStrategy is capped at 330 million shares of common stock with 225 million outstanding. A 10-1 stock split (non-dilutive) would bring share count to 3.3 billion. This proposal gives MSTR flexibility to do future ATMs, convertible note offerings and stock-splits. https://preview.redd.it/586y9nznst8e1.png?width=526&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a9d7804302ead881e067521e263a669a2c86b2c Why do they need the ability to do this? Because it’s their entire “business model:” Borrow money through 0% convertible notes Buy Bitcoin and drive price higher Sell new shares at premium and buy more bitcoin Repeat Bears will say this is unsustainable. The bearish argument is that issuing more shares will objectively be dilutive to shareholders. In an already levered Bitcoin play, MicroStrategy is adding dilution and the ability for raise much more debt. Bears say the company itself it built on unsustainable debt. https://preview.redd.it/ylyt128vst8e1.png?width=546&format=png&auto=webp&s=2599b4362ba09c3e37a07506013116aec8c860cf After all, the company has negative net income, losing -$340 million during Q3 2024. They also posted negative cash flows from operating activities and the business itself is declining. Bears argue that in the wake of a Bitcoin downturn, MSTR cannot service this debt. https://preview.redd.it/d578a08zst8e1.png?width=509&format=png&auto=webp&s=abc2f36f12035421aea0af568d2ff55da2bb15f0 However, bulls will say that the recent run in MicroStrategy’s stock has NOTHING to do with its underlying business. The underlying business has effectively been in a linear decline for a decade now. MSTR is no longer a business, it is a levered proxy for Bitcoin. https://preview.redd.it/7joxec15tt8e1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=8620bc304b077fe845ec66057a902e13ddf68a9b It is worth noting that many large companies have north of 10 billion shares outstanding. Apple has ~15.2 billion shares outstanding. Microsoft and Amazon currently have ~7.5 billion and ~10.5 billion shares outstanding. But, these are fundamentally different companies. https://preview.redd.it/9phwkse8tt8e1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=4812bf966ef7d3ee38592a57f22149a6f9ac89f0 For MSTR to continue buying Bitcoin, this proposal would need to pass. Their 330M Class A shares will be tapped out after they finish the current ATM and max out the $21B in convertible bonds. Of course, MicroStrategy’s entire strategy revolves around these issuances. https://preview.redd.it/0tfamlpctt8e1.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=765478f0c5c8f6002c5a2a3010e4315ab1437144 Now for the million dollar question: will this proposal pass? The answer is that it will VERY LIKELY pass. Why? Because Michael Saylor himself currently holds 46.8% of the voting power. If just ~4% of remaining shareholders approve, then it will pass which is highly likely. https://preview.redd.it/l9pps87gtt8e1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e47e6c03146bf65214fb9608cdc3856688b8872 In summary, bulls will call this the next big thing for MSTR while bears will call this 97% share dilution. If MSTR wants to continue raising capital, they will need this to pass. Which camp are you in? https://preview.redd.it/h2npg54ktt8e1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4f599faa5c747ed88a4ab8ff55bde2b7d1690b3 submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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Mexico’s Growing Trade Dependence on the U.S. vs. Minimal U.S. Reliance on Mexico

Mexico’s trade with the U.S. as a share of its GDP grew significantly, from 15.4% in 1993 to 28.5% in 1995, following the establishment of NAFTA in 1994. This ratio continued to rise, reaching 31.6% in 2008 and peaking at 53.0% in 2022. In stark contrast, U.S. trade with Mexico as a share of its GDP increased modestly, from 1.2% in 1993 to 1.4% in 1995, around 2.2% from 2001 to 2005, and approximately 3% between 2011 and 2023. This stark asymmetry underscores Mexico’s heightened economic vulnerability to shifts in U.S. trade policies. https://preview.redd.it/fw3rilgi2t8e1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb365857fcfaf1295a34fac7479fdfdc5f7ffd38 submitted by /u/Pllover12 [link] [comments]

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Pokémon Cards: the Yakuza’s new favorite asset laundering millions

https://preview.redd.it/spujgk39us8e1.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd1c71b6a65f15f4473cd337432bd33f7180670b Japan’s criminal syndicates have found a wildly creative way to clean dirty money – collectible Pokémon cards. Why Pokémon? Compact 👜 Fly under the radar at customs ✈️ Worth astronomical amounts 💰 Case in point: A rare card recently sold in the U.S. for $5.27 million. The Scheme: The mafia buys rare cards with dirty cash. Smuggles them abroad. Flips them to collectors for clean money. Some cards are so valuable that criminals X-ray sealed packs to find the rarest gems. What seems like child’s play is now an asset of the new era, where a Pikachu card outshines a suitcase of cash. Who knew that Charmander, Bulbasaur, and Slowpoke would end up working for the Yakuza? Source: https://automaton-media.com/en/nongaming-news/pokemon-cards-are-so-valuable-that-criminals-are-using-them-to-launder-dirty-money-japanese-media-reports/ submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

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Though this pullback isn’t pleasant, it’s healthy

InvestorPlace Digest: Between Trump’s win on election day in November and Bitcoin’s high last week, the granddaddy crypto exploded 57%. For perspective, if we annualize that gain, it comes in at just under 500%. That’s no longer a sustainable growth rate for Bitcoin given its near-$2T global market cap today. Keep in mind, all of this is happening right around the psychologically significant level of $100K, which produces its own extraordinary gravity. When Bitcoin approached $100K on the way up, this psychological level lured more buyers into the market in anticipation of the milestone. But once above it, Bitcoin was still influenced by the powerful psychological gravitas. Some traders took profits, resulting in small pullbacks, that scared weak-handed “me too” investors who then sold. Rinse/repeat and the gravity of $100K pulled prices lower, and then some. Today, we’re seeing a course correct that’s par for the course for Bitcoin. Too much exuberance, too quickly, leads to froth that results in a profit-taking selloff. This transfers Bitcoin from weak hands to strong hands where we begin the cycle over again. Bottom line: A 57% explosion that brings us to a massive psychological level requires time to digest. We need a pullback to regroup before a wave of renewed buying pressure can help Bitcoin achieve “escape velocity,” pushing it beyond the gravitational pull of $100K. So, how long will it take? No one knows. But I’d err on the side of patience and wouldn’t be frustrated if we move sideways for several weeks to a couple of months. But let’s be clear about what this isn’t – the end of the Bitcoin bull run Consider that Bitcoin has survived since 2009… experienced crashes of 94% (in 2011), 86% (in 2013), 84% (in 2017-2018), 50% (in 2020), 77% (in 2021-2022), and 40% (in 2023) … Meanwhile, it’s now finally seeing a wave of institutional buying pressure… has countries using it as official fiat currency (El Salvador) … and has our president elect considering an official National Bitcoin Reserve… And yet, the extreme bear case is that now, after finally hitting $100K, that’s when Bitcoin finally peaks and begins a slow slide toward $0 and irrelevance? Unlikely. It’s far more likely that we take a breather (perhaps a meaningful one) and then keep climbing. It’s also far more likely that my friend from the gym will be lamenting not buying at $94K come mid-2025. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

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TKL: Are quantum computing stocks the next big thing? Call options trading value on quantum computing stocks is now 2,500% ABOVE average.

Call options volume in IONQ, RGTI, QBTS, and QUBT relative to their average volume has risen 10 TIMES in just 1 month. To put this into perspective, Nvidia’s, NVDA, record volume in March was 435% above average. As a result, the quantum company ETF, QTUM, has jumped 23% over this time and is up 50% year-to-date. A trend worth watching. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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