Day: November 24, 2024

Trump pick Lutnick’s firm in talks with Tether for $2 billion bitcoin lending project, Bloomberg reports

President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, is in talks to deepen his financial ties with the company operating the world’s largest stablecoin, Tether, by launching a $2 billion project to lend dollars to clients against bitcoin, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday. Lutnick’s financial services firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, is discussing receiving support from Tether to help fund the project, which could potentially reach tens of billions of dollars, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. “Tether Investments is looking to use part of the profits generated in the past years for different opportunities”, Tether said in an e-mailed response to Reuters. Cantor Fitzgerald did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside business hours. Tether uses Cantor to hold billions of dollars worth of Treasuries that support the value of its stablecoin in a relationship that helps Lutnick’s firm earn tens of millions of dollars annually, Bloomberg reported. Stablecoins are digital tokens designed to keep a constant value, and are backed by traditional currencies such as the U.S. dollar or euro. Earlier this week, Trump said he would nominate Lutnick to lead his trade and tariff strategy as head of the Commerce Department. Lutnick would also have “additional direct responsibility” for the U.S. Trade Representative’s office. Lutnick has been known to promote the adoption of cryptocurrency. The Commerce Department oversees a sprawling array of functions with nearly 47,000 employees, from the U.S. Census Bureau to weather forecasting, ocean navigation and investment promotion. submitted by /u/Pllover12 [link] [comments]

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5 big analyst AI moves: Nvidia earnings good for TSMC, Apple gets new bull-case PT

https://preview.redd.it/rxgw3phaax2e1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=06b3e8650e55543c80e353454fe1cdf895a1cce5 Phillip Securities Downgrades Nvidia Stock Phillip Securities has revised its recommendation for NVIDIA Corporation , downgrading the rating from Buy to Accumulate. This decision stems from recent price movements in Nvidia’s stock, even as the firm raised its target price slightly to $160 from $155. Analyst Yik Ban Chong noted that Nvidia’s fiscal Q3 2025 results met expectations, with revenue exceeding guidance by 8% and PATMI showing a remarkable 109% year-over-year growth. Despite the downgrade, Phillip Securities maintained its fiscal year 2025 revenue and PATMI forecasts, increasing its 2026 projections by 5% and 7%, respectively. Key drivers include strong data accelerator platform growth and Nvidia’s robust gross margin outlook for the upcoming Blackwell chips. Bernstein’s Bull-Case for Apple: $290 Target Bernstein analysts suggest a bullish trajectory for Apple , projecting a possible $290 stock value based on key factors such as steady revenue growth, improving margins, and disciplined capital returns. Apple’s extensive ecosystem of over 2.3 billion devices and one billion unique users is a cornerstone of its valuation. Bernstein envisions accelerated product replacement cycles, driven by AI integration and large language model advancements, potentially starting in fiscal year 2026. Seasonal trading patterns also play a role, with pullbacks to $200 seen as buying opportunities. EPS growth to $9 by FY26 underpins the firm’s bullish target. Nvidia’s Success Reflects Positively on TSMC, Says BofA Bank of America analysts link Nvidia’s strong performance to positive prospects for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing . Nvidia’s rapid data center GPU advancements, particularly its Hopper and Blackwell chips, are expected to bolster demand for TSMC’s advanced nodes. BofA highlights ongoing AI-driven demand exceeding supply and TSMC’s plans to address its Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) bottleneck, with production expected to double by late 2025. As AI models become more complex, TSMC is seen as pivotal in meeting these demands. SMCI: Key AI Player, Delisting Risk Reduced Super Micro Computer Inc. shares rallied this week after the company addressed NASDAQ compliance issues with a new audit firm and a detailed compliance plan. Analysts from Lynx Equity Strategies view delisting as highly unlikely, citing SMCI’s importance in the AI data center market and its leadership in liquid-cooled GPU servers. Lynx set a $45 price target and anticipates a potential short squeeze, fueled by reduced delisting risk and market optimism. Raymond James Upgrades HPE to Strong Buy Hewlett Packard Enterprise received an upgrade to Strong Buy from Raymond James, driven by optimism surrounding HPE’s AI platform strategy and its ability to separate traditional servers from AI-based solutions. AI server sales are expected to grow significantly, from $4.1 billion in FY24 to $7.4 billion by FY26, supported by enterprise adoption and sovereign network demand. The firm expects steady financial performance and sees HPE as a key player in AI-focused networking solutions, contributing to its broader AI growth basket. submitted by /u/Pllover12 [link] [comments]

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Beautifully compiled insights from The Kobeissi Letter on MicroStrategy (MSTR): What is MicroStrategy doing, and is it a bubble?

Last week ALONE, MSTR saw $136 BILLION of trading volume. To put this into perspective, not even GameStop, GME, has a week with volume that was remotely close. Things are going to get even more wild as we look ahead. So what does MicroStrategy do? https://preview.redd.it/6f9wdc2zpv2e1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc2415636545c2225d9c15994e2cb63636b0961b To start, the recent run in MicroStrategy’s stock has NOTHING to do with its underlying business. Below is a chart showing $MSTR’s annual and quarterly revenue since 2010. The underlying business has effectively been in a linear decline for a decade now. https://preview.redd.it/fuk1sdl2qv2e1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=9690b8d26fea5812650d2523fd839fe73278ca47 So what is MicroStrategy even doing? At a high level, the company has effectively become a proxy for buying Bitcoin. The company issues debt and uses the proceeds to buy Bitcoin which then drives the price of Bitcoin higher. Then the cycle repeats. https://preview.redd.it/cwydt736qv2e1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=e735dddee85a218655130df465f6f8d78a571730 Most recently, the company’s CEO, Michael Saylor, announced a $3 BILLION convertible note offering. Here’s the craziest part: the notes were offered with a 0% coupon. Investors lent money to MicroStrategy at ZERO percent interest. The notes have a strike price of $672. https://preview.redd.it/616tnzl8qv2e1.png?width=595&format=png&auto=webp&s=41bbf31bf6939b219ebb21ede99c8af685d37acd In other words, the notes are priced at a 55% premium to MSTR’s share price. This means that investors in these bonds ONLY get paid of MSTR rises above $672. At a high level, this appears to be a complete rip off, but we must compare this to pricing of options on the stock. https://preview.redd.it/coxhyprbqv2e1.png?width=695&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f8b4797095d4877c835f7f690a006b46cbb93b0 With the convertible note offering, investors are effectively buying a call option on MSTR with a $672 strike and 2029 expiration date. The difficult part is computing what the zero coupon bond is actually worth. Assume a large coupon of 10% and the call is priced at 38%. https://preview.redd.it/h5i6jyydqv2e1.png?width=762&format=png&auto=webp&s=e77c0c88aa053d4a4f52833bdb42dbdd614c8eb8 Now, let’s take a look at options pricing on MSTR. The furthest possible expiration date on MSTR $670 calls is January 2027, trading at ~$230. That’s a ~55% premium for calls that expire 2.5 years SOONER than the convertible bonds. This makes the notes seem cheap. https://preview.redd.it/vjzwcrzgqv2e1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c2ff28659ca05888545ad1da9f034e372bae854 However, the counter argument here is that everything is overpriced and the options are even more overpriced. The implied volatility yon these calls which are 782 DAYS out is a whopping 107% Needless to say, there is no “cheap” way to play this stock through options. https://preview.redd.it/rulkveliqv2e1.png?width=701&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f2c321c69962549e696eb5ed60e20b95d2fb70b Now to the biggest question, why buy MicroStrategy if you want exposure to Bitcoin instead of Bitcoin itself? Saylor answered this on an X space and said “the people that buy the bonds can’t buy Bitcoin directly.” He says they are investors like 401Ks that cannot buy Bitcoin. https://reddit.com/link/1gyvkao/video/1vxbyqmpqv2e1/player Many claim that when buying MSTR, you are effectively paying a “premium” to buy Bitcoin. Saylor says that is like saying oil companies should only trade based on their oil reserves. Just as oil needs to be refined into gasoline, he says MSTR does the same for Bitcoin. In summary, MicroStrategy’s strategy is reliant on cheap debt offerings: Borrow money through 0% convertible notes Buy Bitcoin and drive price higher Sell new shares at premium and buy more bitcoin Repeat. How long can this cycle go on? Bulls will argue that Saylor has transformed the business world and all companies should begin buying Bitcoin. Bears will argue that this is a textbook Ponzi scheme with an inevitable collapse when capital dries up. Regardless, MSTR is now having a market-wide impact. https://preview.redd.it/kocsm7hxqv2e1.png?width=826&format=png&auto=webp&s=d24390921a3ab35eb586e1ae8718939fa075402d submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

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Literally

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Bitcoin will form a top at the end of May, which coincides with forecasts of a recession in the United States, Copper analysts said.

Experts explained this by data from bullish and bearish cycles, which on average last about 756 days. 554 days have passed since the formation of the bottom; another 202 days remain until the peak, if the analogies remain correct. https://forklog.com/?p=245065 #forecast #Copper submitted by /u/glira31 [link] [comments]

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