The Sahm Rule recession indicator climbed to 0.53 in July, up from 0.43, indicating that the U.S. economy may be in a recession.

https://preview.redd.it/vns2dx0auggd1.png?width=862&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0b828f57fb805a45eba3dfae873fd9ee68cbf50

This rule predicts a recession when the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points from its lowest level in the past 12 months.

With the unemployment rate increasing to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June, the Sahm Rule has been triggered.

In the past 65 years, this indicator has never given a false signal.

Moreover, every time the threshold has been crossed, the rise in the unemployment rate has accelerated.

Are we already experiencing a recession?

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