This rule predicts a recession when the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points from its lowest level in the past 12 months.
With the unemployment rate increasing to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June, the Sahm Rule has been triggered.
In the past 65 years, this indicator has never given a false signal.
Moreover, every time the threshold has been crossed, the rise in the unemployment rate has accelerated.
Are we already experiencing a recession?
submitted by /u/XGramatik
[link] [comments]