Month: August 2024

Historically, the unemployment rate increases by 0.5–1.0 percentage points within the first four months of the onset of a recession. Will the rise in unemployment in the U.S. accelerate?

https://preview.redd.it/rbgnx1q023jd1.jpg?width=818&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91718abaefdbb56bbb7aeb89242339bd806c33f5 In this cycle, the unemployment rate has risen by 0.5 percentage points over the past 4 months, reaching 4.3% in July, the highest level since October 2021. History shows that if a moderate recession occurs, the unemployment rate could exceed 6% by the end of 2025. The unemployment rate has already surpassed the 36-month moving average for the first time in 4 years. Every time this has happened in the past, a spike in unemployment followed. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

Sweden’s new migration policy

The Government of Sweden. Sweden’s migration policy is undergoing a paradigm shift. The Government is intensifying its efforts to reduce, in full compliance with Sweden’s international commitments, the number of migrants coming irregularly to Sweden. Labour immigration fraud and abuses must be stopped and the ‘shadow society’ combated. Sweden will continue to have dignified reception standards, and those who have no grounds for protection or other legal right to stay in Sweden must be expelled. submitted by /u/Ankle_be [link] [comments]

It now takes an annual income of at least $200,000 to buy a typical home in 17 major U.S. metro areas.

https://preview.redd.it/ar3cjxnaj0jd1.png?width=638&format=png&auto=webp&s=39ae782fb92e20405462bfdb58ee07b8a1dd35b8 The most expensive area is San Jose, California, where a household needs to earn $587,000 a year to afford the average home. For the first time in history, the median home sale price in the San Jose metro area has reached $2 million. Meanwhile, the median sale price of existing homes in the U.S. increased in 199 out of 223 metro areas in the second quarter of 2024. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

TRUMP: “On Day One, we’re going to drill, baby, drill — and CLOSE THE BORDER.” – BUT it needs to be reminded: US crude oil production has officially hit a record 13.4 million barrels per day.

https://reddit.com/link/1etjd5w/video/9c5aeripizid1/player FYI: US crude oil production has officially hit a record 13.4 million barrels per day. Daily oil production has increased by 22% over the last 4 years. Since 2008, production has skyrocketed 350% from ~3.8 million barrels per day. The US is now the world’s largest oil producer exceeding Russia’s output by ~35% and Saudi Arabia by ~38%. The US is dominating global oil production. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

According to Reventure, mortgage demand in the U.S. officially declined again in August, approaching its lowest level since 1995.

https://preview.redd.it/i0i1l07j9zid1.png?width=1095&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb20d8dd68570c3de05e6ea474809fa656adb1ee The number of mortgage applications for home purchases in the U.S. fell by 8% year-over-year in August. Moreover, mortgage demand is currently down by approximately 50% compared to pre-pandemic levels. And this is despite the fact that since May, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have decreased by nearly 100 basis points. As of today, the housing market is entirely dependent on supply. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

Bond traders are currently more optimistic about 10-year Treasuries than at any other time in history.

https://preview.redd.it/d8ai3ubzcvid1.png?width=1331&format=png&auto=webp&s=616db94505e868398a7a3fa380848dec993df570 Open interest in 10-year note futures surged to nearly 5 million contracts on Tuesday, indicating that traders anticipate further bond gains. In the past two years, open interest has soared by 2 million contracts as US inflation has gradually eased. Rising recession fears and an increase in the unemployment rate have only added to the popularity of this trade. Is the bond market becoming too crowded? submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

The S&P 500 has gained nearly $4 TRILLION in market cap since hitting its low on August 5th.

https://preview.redd.it/0m0bwou7tuid1.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=f282fe7b24eb139ca9bd733311ba38e17c2ceadf That’s $4 trillion in just 9 trading days, averaging $444 billion PER TRADING DAY since August 5th. Nvidia, $NVDA, by itself, has recovered almost $700 billion in market cap since its August 5th low. Trillions of Dollars in market cap are shifting daily in this market. It’s absolutely wild. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

Record levels and disappointing forecasts of the US debt burden

According to OECD estimates, due to the Fed’s continued high rates, US debt service costs will reach 4.6% of GDP ($1.3-1.6 trillion), which is almost double last year’s figure and the highest level among developed countries. The next positions are occupied by Greece (2.5%), Iceland (2.2%), Spain and Portugal (2.0% each). It is noteworthy that these expenditures are growing faster than defense spending ($918 billion vs. $916 billion, respectively). It is worth noting that the increase in spending is largely driven by short-term bonds and bills. A faster reduction in the interest rate could not only reduce the burden on the US budget, but also improve the situation of the population, since the financial decisions of the country and large businesses ultimately affect ordinary consumers. It turns out that because inflation has not fully slowed down, it is not desirable to lower interest rates, while on the other hand the economy already needs low interest rates. https://preview.redd.it/ynn7hf1lrvid1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d2deec8328580bcd53abd1861f32d541ed0fddc submitted by /u/dll_crypto [link] [comments]

Lumber prices have fallen to their lowest point since the 2020 pandemic, dropping 80% over the past two years.

https://preview.redd.it/1lbfu01r9uid1.png?width=1391&format=png&auto=webp&s=4cca6b96a30f2123f37098f27f25cebfca8c89f9 Lumber is often seen as a leading indicator for the US housing market, global economic trends, and inflation. This steep decline hints at a significant slowdown in the US residential construction and home-improvement sectors. This is evident in the data, as new home construction plunged in June to its lowest level in four years. Moreover, single-family housing starts fell for the fourth month in a row in June, hitting a one-year low. The housing boom is losing steam. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]