Month: August 2024

Dead Cat Bounce or Bullish Reversal? Here’s What the Charts Indicate.

Declan Fallon: After three days of selling it was hardly surprising to see bulls take a peak from under the blanket. Having said that, it was all fairly tentative, with only half the volume of prior selling days. But buying is buying and there is probably more in the tank for the next couple of days, although don’t be surprised if most of the gains are booked premarket. The Russell 2000 (IWM) gapped higher, nearly getting to the 50-day MA before losing some ground into the close. I would look for another challenge of the 50-day MA, although it’s hard to see it regain this average. Technicals are now net bearish, which means any gain from here is likely to be temporary. The S&P 500 is caught more in a no-mans land. It’s trading between 50-day and 200-day MAs, but there is a big gap between them. As with the Russell 2000 ($IWM), technicals are net bearish, but the index is the relative out-performer (vs the Nasdaq) and is oversold on intermediate stochastics. The Nasdaq mounted its challenge from its 200-day MA yesterday. It finished the day up around what was once resistance in the May swing high. As with other indexes, when it reached yesterday’s lows it began to struggle. As the index that has lost the most ground since the July swing high there may be room for more upside, but buying volume suggests a pause is more likely. As with other indexes, technicals are net bearish. For today, I think bulls will be more cautious and I would be looking for doji or a narrow range between open and close price. If, after the first hour of trading, buyers keep the pressure on, then look for a larger test of 20-day MAs, maybe by end-of-week. submitted by /u/Ankle_be [link] [comments]

Volatility is a trader’s best friend! These fluctuations are like the dream wave for a surfer, the one that comes once in a decade. Right now, markets are shifting trillions of dollars in market cap within just a few hours.

So, here we go. The S&P 500 index rose by 2.4% today and is on track for its best daily performance in 2024. The index is now up nearly 4% from yesterday’s low. This means that the S&P 500’s market capitalization has increased by $1.8 TRILLION compared to yesterday’s low. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 index has gained nearly 1,000 points from yesterday’s low. How has the S&P 500 historically performed after a 5% pullback? According to Goldman Sachs, since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced 39 drops of roughly 5%. Afterward, the index has typically risen by +2% on average and showed positive returns about 70% of the time within one month after the drop. Six months after falling by 5%, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of +7% and was positive 85% of the time. Over a 12-month period after the pullback, the average return of the index was +11%, with the index ending up in the green about 75% of the time. Are you feeling the thrill of wild volatility, or did you get totally wrecked? submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

U.S. high-yield spreads have climbed to 372 basis points, the highest level since December 2023.

In recent days, these spreads have been increasing at the fastest rate since the March 2023 Regional Banking Crisis. At that time, the collapse of three mid-sized U.S. banks led to a broader market sell-off and forced the Fed to step in. A similar rise in yields occurred during the 2022 bear market when the S&P 500 dropped 25%. Now, spreads are rising again as the Yen carry trade unwinds. Bond markets are behaving as if we’re in the midst of a crisis. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

FYI: Central banks have implemented 35 rate cuts in the past three months, surpassing the levels seen in Q1 2024.

This is the fastest rate-cutting pace by global central banks since the 2020 pandemic. In the last 25 years, the highest number of cuts occurred in May 2020, with a total of 92 rate reductions worldwide. For comparison, during the height of the Financial Crisis in 2009, central banks made 76 cuts globally. It seems like central banks around the world are preparing for a potential global recession. https://preview.redd.it/18sjb0pje2hd1.jpg?width=624&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe3ab53a368f9747da45fb60cac356f18c7fe797 submitted by /u/MarciaUnrein [link] [comments]

Looks like we missed it… The TrumpCoin (DJT) token, allegedly created by investor Martin Shkreli along with Trump’s son, Barron, plummeted by 91% on the morning of August 6th.

The crash was triggered by the sudden withdrawal of 29,358 SOL ($4.15 million) from the pool that provided liquidity for trading the token on decentralized exchanges. Following this, tokens worth 15,610 SOL ($2.25 million) were sold. The DJT team denies any involvement in the incident. Is this a f*** scam, or what’s the right term for it? Let me know. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

Performance of tokens listed on Binance since the beginning of 2024

https://preview.redd.it/hi9b3w6p73hd1.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e7d3970c1fa44e3dc9cfdc57907e654cb088f5d9 This year, 30 tokens have been added to the exchange. Only one of them has shown positive performance relative to its price at the time of listing on the platform. Data: Coin98 submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

Black Monday Unexpected Losers

The decline in gold (spot prices at one point fell by as much as 3.2%) might surprise some, considering the metal’s long-standing reputation as a safe-haven asset. In fact, history shows that in times of intense turmoil, gold also tends to weaken as some traders are forced to cover unexpected margin calls when assets fall across the board. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which remains very optimistic about the prospects for bullion, suggested that such dynamics may have been at play during Monday’s session. The precious metal could “suffer from negative spillovers from broader market routs as investors liquidate gold positions to cover margins calls,” analysts, including Daan Struyven, stated in a note while reaffirming the bank’s target for gold to rise to a record $2,700 an ounce by 2025. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unexpected-winners-losers-markets-went-080546304.html I believe the same can be said for the cryptocurrency market, which was heavily impacted by the global sell-off on Monday: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) briefly traded below $50,000, and Ethereum (ETH-USD) experienced its largest one-day drop since 2021. Margin calls forced investors to hit the panic button. submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]

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Europe’s STOXX 600 gains on global recovery, earnings boost

(Reuters) – European shares rebounded on Tuesday after hitting six-month lows in the previous session, resonating a recovery across Asian markets, and buoyed in part by a plethora of corporate earnings. The STOXX 600 was up 0.8%, as of 0717 GMT, after the continent-wide index logged on Monday its steepest three-day decline since June 2022, closing below the key 500-point mark for a second day. Japan’s Nikkei gained 9% after the markets witnessed its largest single-day decline since 1987 in the previous session. [MKTS/GLOB] The travel sub-index was the top gainer among sectors, led by a 2.1% gain in InterContinental Hotels Group after the Holiday Inn owner reported higher numbers in the second quarter. Among individual stock moves, Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena surged 8.2% ater it raised its profit outlook. Adecco (SIX:ADEN) gained nearly 5% even as the Swiss staffing company flagged bleak hiring trends to persist in the third quarter. Shares of Zalando gained 4% after the online fashion marketplace reported an 18.5% rise in its operating profit for the second quarter. Abrdn gained 3.7% despite the British asset manager reporting a modest dip in its assets under management in the six months ended June 30. submitted by /u/Ankle_be [link] [comments]