For the past four months, the US unemployment rate has been on the rise, marking its longest upward trend since the 2008 Financial Crisis, signaling a contraction in the labor market.

Historically, over the last 75 years, every instance of unemployment increasing for four consecutive months has been followed by a recession in the US economy.

Unemployment has jumped from 3.8% in March to 4.3% in July, reaching its highest point since October 2021.

At the same time, the hiring rate in the US dropped to 3.4% in July, its lowest level since the 2020 Pandemic and below the pre-pandemic average of 3.8%.

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