Day: August 19, 2024

Hello there

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Russia’s Tanker Fleet is Expanding – Azerbaijan’s decision to openly participate in the construction of new tankers for Russia is not just quiet cooperation, but a loud statement: “We will help our partners export oil while bypassing sanctions.”

Russia and Azerbaijan will jointly build “river-sea” class oil tankers. These innovative vessels will bolster Russia’s tanker fleet, enabling the country to circumvent sanctions. The work will be carried out by Russia’s United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) and the Baku Shipyard. What’s particularly interesting is that the number of tankers in Russia’s fleet is growing daily, while the U.S. Treasury Department struggles to “keep up” with adding the names of new tankers to the sanctions list. As of now, the fleet used for transporting Russian crude oil exceeds the fleet that has been sanctioned. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

U.S. government spending is forecasted to reach 24.2% of GDP in 2024, well above the 39-year average of 21.1%, according to the CBO. Meanwhile, revenues are expected to be 17.6% of GDP, only 0.4 percentage points higher than the 1984-2023 average.

https://preview.redd.it/nyvy7u0h5mjd1.png?width=809&format=png&auto=webp&s=d47adb8f0613ac56861e51903058008551fd6107 This will push the U.S. deficit to an estimated 6.6% of GDP, nearly double the 39-year average. In nominal terms, the deficit is projected to hit $1.9 trillion in 2024, the highest since 2021, when it reached $2.8 trillion due to the pandemic response. With government spending increasing rapidly relative to GDP and revenue growth lagging, multi-trillion-dollar deficits are becoming the new normal. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

World shares underpinned, dollar undermined by dovish Fed wagers

LONDON (Reuters) – Wall Street looked to a flat open as the dollar tipped lower on Monday off the back of last week’s surging stock markets as expectations the U.S. economy would dodge a recession and cooling inflation would kick off a cycle of interest rate cuts. The prospect of lower borrowing costs could not sustain gold’s historic highs and the dollar dipped against the euro, while the yen lunged higher. Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were trading around flat at 1215 BST.[.N] MSCI’s broadest index of world stocks had edged up around 0.2%. In the U.S., Federal Reserve members Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee were out over the weekend to flag the possibility of easing in September, while minutes of the last policy meeting due this week should underline the dovish outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks in Jackson Hole on Friday and investors assume he will acknowledge the case for a cut. “Everything points to this Friday. We’ll be looking for any indication that rate cuts might be on the way. The next question is, how big will those rate cuts be?” said Paul O’Neill, chief investment officer of wealth management firm Bentley Reid. Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point move, and imply a 25% chance of 50 basis points with much depending on what the next payrolls report shows. Analysts at Goldman Sachs downshifted their U.S. recession expectations to a 20% chance and could push them lower if the August jobs report due in September “looks reasonably good”, said a note on Friday. Ahead of the busy week, broad European shares ticked 0.2% higher, while the blue-chip FTSE 100 index traded flat. France and Germany’s climbed 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Investors are anticipating flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for France, Germany, Britain and the Eurozone later this week. Earlier, the Nikkei index .N225 closed 1.77% lower at 37,388.62, snapping a five-day winning run that pushed it up 8.7% last week. Chinese blue chips closed about 0.3% higher. A preliminary takeover offer from Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard sent the 7-Eleven convenience store chain Seven & I holdings surging 23% to a daily limit high, though no decision to accept the offer has been taken. CUTS FOR ALL The Fed is hardly alone in contemplating looser policy, with Sweden’s central bank expected to cut rates this week, and possibly by an outsized 50 basis points. In currency markets, the dollar lapsed 1.0% to 146.27 yen while the euro firmed to $1.1040, just below last week’s peak of $1.1034. [USD/] Even as markets have calmed again, it is worth remembering that the economic fundamentals behind the global markets selloff two weeks ago have not completely vanished, said Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen. “Economic data has been increasingly soft at a global level, falling inflation means that monetary policy is increasingly tight in real terms, geopolitical concerns are elevated, and we’re heading into a tough period on a seasonal basis,” said Allen in a note on Monday. A softer dollar combined with lower bond yields could not hold gold at its zenith and it fell to around $2,488 an ounce, down from its all-time peak of $2,509. [GOL/] Oil prices dipped again as concerns about Chinese demand continued to weigh on sentiment. [O/R] Brent fell about 55 cents to $79.13 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 59 cents to $76.06 per barrel. By Nell Mackenzie https://preview.redd.it/edy7syqqdmjd1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcf381160732b2534397afb378b34806183eeb3c submitted by /u/Lor1al [link] [comments]

Pain

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Is the number of mortgage delinquencies a threat of a new wave of bankruptcies?

In July, the delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) reached 8.1%, the highest level in 11 years. The number of overdue loans has quadrupled in just 1.5 years. The US commercial real estate sector is on the verge of a wave of bankruptcies similar to the 2008 crisis. Around 70% of the sector’s debt is concentrated in regional banks, which are already under significant pressure. However, given the share of these mortgages in the total volume and their concentration in regional banks, it is likely that this will not have a large-scale impact on the markets as a whole, although it will create some difficulties. https://preview.redd.it/njhaa3hazkjd1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c73580b8ee97efd224116f49ba0ac174779952f submitted by /u/dll_crypto [link] [comments]

Checkmate

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