Day: August 15, 2024

Bond traders are currently more optimistic about 10-year Treasuries than at any other time in history.

https://preview.redd.it/d8ai3ubzcvid1.png?width=1331&format=png&auto=webp&s=616db94505e868398a7a3fa380848dec993df570 Open interest in 10-year note futures surged to nearly 5 million contracts on Tuesday, indicating that traders anticipate further bond gains. In the past two years, open interest has soared by 2 million contracts as US inflation has gradually eased. Rising recession fears and an increase in the unemployment rate have only added to the popularity of this trade. Is the bond market becoming too crowded? submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

The S&P 500 has gained nearly $4 TRILLION in market cap since hitting its low on August 5th.

https://preview.redd.it/0m0bwou7tuid1.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=f282fe7b24eb139ca9bd733311ba38e17c2ceadf That’s $4 trillion in just 9 trading days, averaging $444 billion PER TRADING DAY since August 5th. Nvidia, $NVDA, by itself, has recovered almost $700 billion in market cap since its August 5th low. Trillions of Dollars in market cap are shifting daily in this market. It’s absolutely wild. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

Record levels and disappointing forecasts of the US debt burden

According to OECD estimates, due to the Fed’s continued high rates, US debt service costs will reach 4.6% of GDP ($1.3-1.6 trillion), which is almost double last year’s figure and the highest level among developed countries. The next positions are occupied by Greece (2.5%), Iceland (2.2%), Spain and Portugal (2.0% each). It is noteworthy that these expenditures are growing faster than defense spending ($918 billion vs. $916 billion, respectively). It is worth noting that the increase in spending is largely driven by short-term bonds and bills. A faster reduction in the interest rate could not only reduce the burden on the US budget, but also improve the situation of the population, since the financial decisions of the country and large businesses ultimately affect ordinary consumers. It turns out that because inflation has not fully slowed down, it is not desirable to lower interest rates, while on the other hand the economy already needs low interest rates. https://preview.redd.it/ynn7hf1lrvid1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d2deec8328580bcd53abd1861f32d541ed0fddc submitted by /u/dll_crypto [link] [comments]

Lumber prices have fallen to their lowest point since the 2020 pandemic, dropping 80% over the past two years.

https://preview.redd.it/1lbfu01r9uid1.png?width=1391&format=png&auto=webp&s=4cca6b96a30f2123f37098f27f25cebfca8c89f9 Lumber is often seen as a leading indicator for the US housing market, global economic trends, and inflation. This steep decline hints at a significant slowdown in the US residential construction and home-improvement sectors. This is evident in the data, as new home construction plunged in June to its lowest level in four years. Moreover, single-family housing starts fell for the fourth month in a row in June, hitting a one-year low. The housing boom is losing steam. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

US job numbers have been revised down by 778,000 since February 2022, according to BlackRock. What’s really going on here?

https://preview.redd.it/jio89j9jutid1.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=4943351c95d8f6152f3cedc759455455cda3e0b0 US job numbers have been revised down by 778,000 since February 2022, according to BlackRock. In just this year alone, non-farm payrolls were revised down by 279,000 between January and June. Moreover, the US economy LOST 192,000 jobs in Q3 2023 but gained 344,000 in Q4 2023, according to the BED survey from the BLS. However, the nonfarm payrolls data paints a different picture, showing the US labor market added 663,000 jobs in Q3 and 577,000 in Q4 2023. This is a staggering difference of 1,088,000 jobs between the two sets of numbers in just two quarters. The labor market isn’t as strong as the headlines suggest. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]

This is astonishing: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s cash reserves surged to 25.0% of total assets in Q2 2024, the highest level seen in at least 24 years.

https://preview.redd.it/w33sb81wesid1.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f488ee029003cf8428f05c8d7950273e12757dc In just two years, the company’s cash share has more than DOUBLED. For context, their cash-to-total assets ratio peaked at 24.5% in Q2 2005 and stayed high until 2007. Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term Treasuries soared by $88 billion, hitting a new record of $277 billion in Q2 2024. Is Buffett turning bearish? submitted by /u/FXgram_ [link] [comments]