In America, older people face the inevitable truth that driving becomes a safety hazard. You’ve been driving your whole life, but age catches up – your vision blurs, your reaction slows, and your hands start to shake. For some, it happens at 60, for others at 80, but it happens to everyone. And convincing yourself that it’s time to hang up the keys is no small feat. So, if you hastily closed the trades and cashed out in the first quarter of 2024, this is a good sign that you can no longer trust yourself. You won’t be able to fight the temptations of trying to beat the market. The best predictor of future behavior? Past behavior. Sure, some of us claim to learn from our mistakes, but let’s be real, we mostly stay the same. If you panicked before and then told yourself it wouldn’t happen again, you’re probably lying to yourself. Next time, you’ll find another excuse to panic, with even more money at stake, and you’ll be more terrified than before. And it will all happen again, only with less time left until retirement. submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]
Month: July 2024
Donald Trump this morning đ
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Germany 40 climbs +1.4%. How high will Germanyâs large cap companies go?
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GME. This is wonderful, but absolutely useless and not quite right. However, it’s still interesting.
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JPY Strengthens: USD/JPY -0.6%, EUR/JPY -0.6%
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Coming up this week: Earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, Coca-Cola, Porsche, General Electric, General Motors and AbbVie will be reported. PMI from the Eurozone, France and Germany will be released. US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) will be published.
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MrMBrown: Airline stocks hitting turbulence at the open
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Chinaâs Central Bank Lowers Key Policy Rate Unexpectedly
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It’s supposed to be the other way around
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Pepperstone, Chris Weston: A Tradersâ Week Ahead Playbook â Would the real Kamala Harris please stand up
Authored by Chris Weston The first question many are asking as we start the trading week is whether Kamala Harris is a done deal as the Democratic Nominee, and subsequently, whether there will be any impact on many of the so-called âTrump Tradesâ that have already been expressed. Joe Biden has formally exited the presidential race and has backed his VP Kamala Harris as the nominee, but the process from here still clouds the markets judgment and will either centre on the party rallying around Harris, or see a more open process, with other candidates (should they formally enter the race) going through a two-step voting process at the Republican National Convention on 19-22 August. Harris is the huge favourite to get the gig, notably as this offers the smoothest transition and the outcome that will presumably sit best with party donors. Reports that both Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitner have said they donât plan to challenge increases the prospect of the party rallying around Harris, but others (such as Hilary Clinton) may still play their hand. The Democrats need to show a united front I am not a political expert but understand that traders are risk managers, and that politics has a significant connection with the financial markets. However, one suspects senior Democratic leaders would likely look to unite the party behind Harris, and weâve already seen Dem Senator Stabenow endorse Harris, with reports that Gov Wes Moore will too. Unity has been scarce in the Demâs current campaign and a galvanized party into the conventions would clearly be advantageous. While nothing in this race is certain given prediction markets place Harrisâs odds of being the Democratic nominee above 80%, it suggests most market players will look to price election risk and the playbook from a Trump vs Harris campaign. Recent polls had Trump marginally beating Harris in November, however, things could change on her first address to the nation and how âpresidentialâ she sounds. Still, while Biden stepping down is certainly not unexpected, it does add a layer of confusion, but one can imagine a softer USD and a slight pullback in the stocks that benefited from a clear Trump win and a Republican âRed Waveâ. Setting the platform for the new trading week These developments aside, and setting the platform, we move past a week where tactical/discretionary traders have played defence, although this bias was more pronounced in FX and equity markets, where gold and US Treasuries closed the week lower. Bitcoin also diverged from the negative moves seen in equity, gaining 5% w/w, with the third largest weekly inflow into the broad suite of BTC ETFs – where the underlying momentum has seen Bitcoin breach of 68k and suggests we could see another tilt at 70k. US election developments, global IT disruptions and a broad pick-up in cross-market volatility have resulted in the unwind of FX carry strategies. Subsequently, along with the USD, it was the âfundingâ currencies (CHF, EUR, and JPY) that outperformed, with cyclical (AUD, NZD, and NOK) and high beta Latam plays all sold off hard. As we move into the new week, unless we see a marked pick-up in sentiment the probability of these moves spilling over looks elevated – short NZDCHF and MXNJPY screen well for further downside, although Mexicoâs CPI print (due on Wednesday) does add risk to MXN positions this week. In equity, it was the NKY225 and EU equity indices that underperformed the broader developed market equity complex, with upbeat selling activity into the back part of the week. The NAS100 closed -3.7% w/w and I look for a break of the 50-day MA and 24 June swing low to naturally increase the probability of further liquidations pushing the tech-index into 18,900. A solid flush out of well-owned tech plays The S&P500 has seen a solid flush out of extended and concentrated positioning in some incredibly well-owned areas of the market, with the S&P500 tech sector losing -5.1% w/w, for the second worst week since 2022. Politics aside, we look ahead to the ramp-up in US and EU corporate earnings reporting, and notably numbers from Tesla, Alphabet, and IBM, which could see increased volatility at a single stock level, with the options market implying some sizeable moves in the respective names on the day of the report. My colleague MrMBrown put some thoughts on earnings from the Mag 7 names â click here I wouldnât be stepping in to buy S&P500 (or NAS100) just yet and would want to see how price reacted at the 50-day MA (5409), given it has acted as a robust trend filter since October. Traderâs buying volatility as uncertainty rises There has been steady demand to buy equity/index volatility, with the VIX pushing into 16.5%, where a push into 18% to 20% canât be ruled out this week, which for many day traders is the sweet spot for volatility. By way of daily trading ranges, we already see the S&P500 5-day average daily high-low trading range hitting 60 points and the most since early May, so that has offered plenty for the day traders to cut their craft in. While for those working off longer-term timeframes, such as swing strategies, may look to reduce position sizing accordingly to account for the higher volatility. Elsewhere on the week, watch CAD exposures over the BoC meeting, with a 25bp rate cut largely priced. We get growth data points in the US, EU, and US, where we see manufacturing and services PMIs potentially impacting sentiment. Eyes on China too where we see the PBoC decision to alter the 1- and 5-year Loan Prime Rate. Good luck to all. Where to trade? đ You know submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]
Memcoins are the leaders of growth among cryptocurrencies for the last 90 days.
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Kamala Harris has weighed in
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Cathie Wood and Ark Invest bought 38,595 shares of CrowdStrike $CRWD today
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Chris Weston, Pepperstone: Bitcoin > 68k… clear underlying momentum in the price, and comes on the back of the 3rd highest inflows into BTC ETFs since their launched
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Pepperestone: Initial reaction to President Biden dropping out of the presidential race, and how markets may react to the news đ
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MrMBrown: Early FX pricing as the new trading week gets underway…some v v modest USD softness, though no overly significant reaction to the Biden news…
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TRUMP COMMENTS ON TRUTH SOCIAL ABOUT BIDEN DROPPING OUT OF RACE
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BREAKING: Joe Biden announces he will not run for re-election
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When the Stakes are High
When you’re young and have just a few thousand dollars in your portfolio, panicking and selling everything at the worst possible momentâat the bottomâis not a big deal. You have plenty of time to recover from your mistakes over the course of your life. However, if you’re middle-aged and your portfolio is substantialâsay, several years’ worth of salaryâyou have much less time to correct a significant error. The exact figures and age will vary for everyone, but I think that once you have around four years of accumulated income, or roughly 50 salaries, it becomes more challenging to navigate without experience, and it might be worth considering seeking professional advice. Of course, if you’re satisfied with your investments, your money is spread across two or three ETFs, and your portfolio is regularly growing, a good advisor will probably tell you that you’re doing great and to keep up the good work. In this case, paying $200 for a consultation might feel a bit frustrating. But at least you’ll gain extra confidence in your decisions. Some people spend $5,000 on Tony Robbins seminars just to hear that they can attend Tony Robbins seminars for $5,000. Yes! (Say YES!). submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]
GME May be Enough
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Pepperstone: The week ahead for financial markets
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This is the most important article in America right now: Trump Secret Service Agents confirm that they begged DC for more protection for two years. Biden appointees REFUSED – Washington Post
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This is the greatest video on the internet right now now đĽ
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S&P 500 CLOSES 0.7% LOWER, NASDAQ 100 DOWN 0.9%. We are going to Valh….
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Weekend đ¸đž Free Talk
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Most Talkable Assets Of The Week
đ´ USDJPY – Yen rally shakes up markets âĄď¸ RUT – Small caps stocks, which are tracked on the Russell 2000 (RUT), out performed large cap stocks on the Nasdaq 100 for 5 straight days đ TSMC – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is thriving by posting a hefty 36% rise in second-quarter net profit đ BTC – Trump speculation helps Bitcoin rise past Mt Gox jitters đĽETH – Spot Ether ETFs, which will enable investors to buy the second most popular cryptocurrency just like stocks, are set to start trading in the U.S. next week đĄXAUUSD – Gold remains close to another record highs Quote of the week: ‘When you invest, you are buying a day that you donât have to work.’ – Aya Laraya Is there anything missing? Anyway, have a great weekend everybody. Where to trade? You know đ https://sky-tide.com/ submitted by /u/XGramatik [link] [comments]
As generative AI booms, a new class of traders is investing in US power markets, according to Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. Hedge funds and asset managers are focusing on electricity amid rising power demand from data centers.
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A lot of energy, damn a lot of energy! đ
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Relevant)
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Burberry shares lose -14%
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