This is because many independent things can go wrong, break, or not work as intended. If, in any given year, we have a 1% chance of a new terrible pandemic, a 1% chance of a global depression, a 1% chance of a catastrophic flood, a 1% chance of a political collapse in a major country, and so on, the chances of something bad happening are quite high.

The interconnectedness of our modern world amplifies these probabilities. For instance, a political collapse in a major country can trigger economic instability globally, while a pandemic can strain healthcare systems and economies worldwide simultaneously. These overlapping crises create a domino effect, where one event can set off a chain reaction, leading to multiple, seemingly rare events occurring in rapid succession.

Moreover, the rapid pace of technological advancement and environmental changes introduces new variables that can disrupt the status quo. The rise of cyber threats, climate change, and the increasing complexity of global supply chains are additional layers of risk that can cause unexpected and severe disruptions. As our world becomes more interconnected and interdependent, the likelihood of facing multiple “once-in-a-century” events grows.

In early 20th century Britain, there was a well-known historian and intellectual named Arnold Toynbee. He wrote an important book called “A Study of History,” somewhat like a Yuval Harari of a century ago. He very aptly said that history is just one damn thing after another.